040
FXUS63 KOAX 082048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
348 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers expected through the evening.

- Very pleasant weather expected for Sunday and Monday with
  highs near 80 and plenty of sunshine.

- Next week brings a forecast for the hottest temperatures of
  the year so far along with a few chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

KOAX is returning widespread 20-40 dBzs reflecting off showers
associated with a shortwave embedded in the WNW 500 hPa flow.
Some are reaching the ground and some are not. Have maintained
20-50% PoPs through the evening. Nearly no QPF is forecast.

Have maintained some iso PoPs along the KS state line after
midnight as an MCS will work along the cold front draped across
that state. The bulk of the moisture is forecast to fall the
other side of our shared border. Portions of eastern Kansas
could be in for a poor night of sleep.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

Sunday and Monday will be dry with pleasant conditions forecast
thanks in part to the lower dewpoints filtering in on today`s
weak northerly surface flow that continues through Sunday.

Sunday`s highs near 80 will be repeated on Monday as the
northerly winds veer and become southerly return flow as the
surface ridge passes through. That ridge will assure plenty of
sunshine through the day.

.TUESDAY...

A significant trof works along the international border and
drags a cold front through the Northern Plains on Tuesday and
brings 30-40% chance of rain. CAPE and PWAT are marginal at best
leaving me to believe it might just be a pleasant early summer
rain.

.THE REST OF THE WEEK...

Expect a zonal upper flow developing mid-week bringing a parade
of waves to the Corn Belt. Severe weather looks possible on
Wednesday and Thursday, but plenty of questions remain including
location and timing. It`s worth noting that severe weather is
at its climatological peak in mid- June for this CWA.

Continue to forecast lower-90s for Wednesday and Thursday, but
confidence isn`t great with the severe weather threat in place.
Cloud cover or front placement could spoil the fun. A rare climate
portion of the discussion is included below.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Chance of showers is the primary concern with this TAF forecast.
Have maintained their mention at all three sites, but confidence
has slipped. Believe chance is closer to 25-30% for any
measurable precip. Have narrowed the windows of possible precip
as those showers slip south over the course of the afternoon and
evening. VFR conditions prevail through it all with northerly
winds gusting to 20 knots this afternoon and becoming light
overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Omaha and Norfolk have yet to hit 90F this year which is nearly
a month behind schedule when averaging the date of the first 90F
day over the past 30 years. Both cities are currently forecast
to get there by Thursday.

Despite the lack of 90F days thus far, the entire area is still
averaging warmer than normal high temps for the past 30 days,
past 90 days, and past 365 days. In fact, the past year (6/8/23
to 6/7/24) is tied for the fourth warmest of the same period at
Omaha (+2.7) and sixth warmest for KOFK in their POR (+3.5F).

Lincoln climbed to 91F this past Thursday (30 days later than
latest 30 year average) and is on a scorching pace. The past 365
days were the warmest early June to early June for the
threadex`s 136 year history.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen
CLIMATE...Nicolaisen