654
FXUS64 KOHX 270600
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
100 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Convection currently working southward across the mid state with the
leading edge stretching from Linden to Franklin to Jamestown. Lapse
rates have backed down considerably but capes and helicity values
south of the leading edge are still considerable. Tornado watch has
been cleared in our far nw 3 counties with additional clearing
upcoming soon.

Moving on, we will see some partial clearing this afternoon. Hrrr
does elude toward some isolated general tstm development but
confidence in that regard is rather low. Otw, the remainder of the
short term period looks quite calm. Surface high pressure will be
building down from our north. This will provide some drier and more
seasonal temperatures through Wednesday. Dewpoints will actually
drop into the 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday behind what looks to be a
Monday night dry fropa. Note that the associated ul troughing is
quite weak and broad. So we should still warm into the upper 70s to
lower 80s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

In the extended forecast, a much welcomed dry and benign pattern
appears to be forthcoming. A dry northwesterly flow will give way to
some ridging by the weekend. Perhaps a weak frontal system may bring
a few showers and tstms by Sunday. Pops look as though they will be
on the low side with no svr threat at this time, anyway.

For the extended temps, it will start out a little below seasonal.
Then, with that aforementioned ridge, we`ll warm into the lower to
mid 80s over the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the 50s
initially, then into the lower 60s by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Band of thunderstorms will continue to move across the mid state
through 10Z. Some thunderstorms have the potential to reach
strong to severe limits. This will include the possibility of wind
gusts of up to 40 mph with the strongest storms. Vsbys could also
fall to below 1sm with the stronger convection as well. By 12Z
the taf sites should be clear of all precipitation. There is a
slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
but coverage will be too low for inclusion at this time. Otw, Look
for partial clearing into the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  64  85  60 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    83  62  82  57 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     78  56  77  52 /  50   0   0   0
Columbia       85  61  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     80  59  79  54 /  50   0   0   0
Jamestown      78  57  77  54 /  50   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   84  61  83  58 /  20   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   85  60  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        83  62  83  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....21