853
FXUS64 KOHX 271126
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
626 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Convection currently working southward across the mid state with the
leading edge stretching from Linden to Franklin to Jamestown. Lapse
rates have backed down considerably but capes and helicity values
south of the leading edge are still considerable. Tornado watch has
been cleared in our far nw 3 counties with additional clearing
upcoming soon.

Moving on, we will see some partial clearing this afternoon. Hrrr
does elude toward some isolated general tstm development but
confidence in that regard is rather low. Otw, the remainder of the
short term period looks quite calm. Surface high pressure will be
building down from our north. This will provide some drier and more
seasonal temperatures through Wednesday. Dewpoints will actually
drop into the 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday behind what looks to be a
Monday night dry fropa. Note that the associated ul troughing is
quite weak and broad. So we should still warm into the upper 70s to
lower 80s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

In the extended forecast, a much welcomed dry and benign pattern
appears to be forthcoming. A dry northwesterly flow will give way to
some ridging by the weekend. Perhaps a weak frontal system may bring
a few showers and tstms by Sunday. Pops look as though they will be
on the low side with no svr threat at this time, anyway.

For the extended temps, it will start out a little below seasonal.
Then, with that aforementioned ridge, we`ll warm into the lower to
mid 80s over the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the 50s
initially, then into the lower 60s by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle, though some mid-level
clouds will be around this afternoon. Winds will pick up out of
the west with a few gusts to 20 kts before relaxing around sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  64  85  59 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    83  61  82  57 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     78  56  77  52 /  40   0   0   0
Columbia       85  61  85  57 /  10  10   0   0
Cookeville     80  59  79  54 /  30   0   0   0
Jamestown      78  56  77  53 /  30   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   85  61  84  58 /  20   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   86  61  85  57 /  20  10   0   0
Waverly        84  61  83  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Unger