Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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869 FXUS64 KOHX 291808 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 108 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Beautiful and quite comfortable day for late May across the midstate with partly to mostly cloudy skies, current temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s, and pleasant dewpoints in the 50s. This nice and quiet weather looks to continue through Friday thanks to a surface high pressure ridge centered over the Great Lakes and northwest flow aloft. Tonight will be quiet cool and almost chilly in some areas as lows drop into the upper 40s on the Plateau and low to mid 50s elsewhere. With light winds, mostly clear skies, and low dewpoint depressions expected, some patchy fog is also likely by sunrise. Thursday and Thursday night look to be a near carbon-copy of today/tonight with highs in the 70s to low 80s, lows in the upper 40s and 50s, and pleasant RH. Friday looks to be a bit warmer as a weak upper ridge builds northward from the Gulf Coast, with highs reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Our weather pattern becomes warmer, humid, and more unsettled from Friday night through the rest of the forecast period as upper flow becomes more amplified aloft and deeper gulf moisture returns from the southwest. This should allow for widely scattered and mainly diurnal showers and a few thunderstorms to develop each day, a more typical summertime-like pattern, with slight to chance pops warranted. Not seeing any notable signal for potential strong or severe storms, but higher PWATs and stronger wind fields early next week on the 12Z GFS might allow for some stronger storms if those model trends continue. Rainfall totals over the next 7 days will vary considerably across the midstate, but in general a half inch to an inch is anticipated for most locations. Temperatures will also warm well into the 80s areawide throughout the extended period, with dewpoints also increasing into the 60s/70s, making it quite humid outdoors. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions will generally prevail thru 30/18Z. Exceptions will be at SRB/CSV where MVFR/IFR fog could periodically prevail 30/09Z-30/13Z. Enough low to mid level moisture prevalence expected to support scattered to potentially broken CU/AC fields as diurnal influences persist thru 30/02Z or reinitiate around 30/15Z. Sustained sfc winds generally 8-12kts will slowly veer N to NE and become light thru 30/18Z. Winds behind sfc cold frontal passage could potentially gusts up to 25kts thru 30/02Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 56 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 53 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 48 74 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 54 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 51 74 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 49 74 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 53 79 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 53 80 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 55 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....JB Wright