634
FXUS64 KOHX 052345
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
645 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The morning sounding from OHX is rather underwhelming. There is
some instability, but not a great deal. The surface-based CAPE is
just 333 J/kg, with a Lifted Index of -2, and the 700-500 mb lapse
rate is a measly 5.2 C/km. The column is nearly saturated all the
way up, and without any sort of dry layer aloft, we just aren`t
getting steep enough lapse rates to produce any meaningful
instability. The 0-3 km helicity is 136, but this is due mostly to
speed shear. There is very little directional shear present. The
Precipitable Water is a robust 1.77", which gives us a PWAT+ value
of 148 (observed PWAT is 148% of the daily mean value), and puts
us well above the 90th percentile for June 5. Anyway, once this
initial line of showers passes through Middle Tennessee, the HRRR
shows very little activity until later tonight with the passage of
the actual surface boundary. After that, nothing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure will keep us mostly sunny and less humid through
Friday. What looked to be a sunny weekend not so long ago is now
looking like a rainy one, especially Sunday. On Saturday, a weak
shortwave will bring some additional cloudiness with low rain
chances to Middle Tennessee. And on Sunday, an east-west oriented
surface boundary will sag southward through the mid state and
bring even better rain chances. Fortunately, QPF values on
Saturday and Sunday are very low. In other words, these will be
nuisance showers rather than washouts. As a result of tonight`s
frontal passage, temperatures will cool off several degrees
beginning Thursday night and Friday, with relatively cool weather
lasting at least until the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will push in from the
west after 00Z. They will be spotty in nature as the high
resolution models have been overdoing the precipitation. Will
utilize VCSH/VCTS for stations west of the Plateau
(KCKV/KBNA/KMQY). The line clears off the Plateau by 17-20Z.

There could still be a period of MVFR/IFR CIGs around sunrise
before returning to VFR. Also MVFR/IFR will be possible in the
heavier thunderstorms.

Winds will be westerly and then turning northwesterly and gusting
to 20kts after 22Z when the weak front pushes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  89  62  84 /  50  10   0   0
Clarksville    67  86  59  83 /  40   0   0   0
Crossville     64  80  55  75 /  70  50   0   0
Columbia       68  87  60  82 /  50  10   0   0
Cookeville     66  82  57  77 /  70  30   0   0
Jamestown      65  81  55  75 /  70  50   0   0
Lawrenceburg   68  86  60  80 /  60  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   68  87  60  82 /  60  10   0   0
Waverly        67  86  59  82 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....12