824
FXUS61 KOKX 062339
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
739 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system continues passing across the area tonight. A
broad area of low pressure meanders nearby over southeast Canada
Friday and into early next week. High pressure follow for the
middle of next week. A broad area of low pressure meanders
nearby over southeast Canada Friday and into early next week.
High pressure should follow for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The threat for strong to severe convection appears to be
diminishing this evening. A pre-frontal trough is currently
moving across the Hudson River corridor with the trailing cold
front just west of the area. Instability axis remains across NE
NJ into the Lower Hudson Valley, but shear is weak and generally
25-30 kt. This has likely prevented more significant storm
organization.

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms exists along the
pre-frontal trough and ahead of the cold front. This activity
will work eastward this evening, but likely begin weakening
after sunset as instability decreases.

The cold front will continue working its way offshore tonight.
Cloud cover will gradually begin to clear west to east as winds
shift from southerly to westerly and northwesterly. This will
also lead to lowering dewpoints at the surface, but overall,
weak winds are expected. Lingering low level moisture and weak
winds may allow for patchy fog out east overnight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low moves into the eastern Great Lakes and into Upstate
New York Friday. Scattered showers are possible Friday afternoon
under west/northwest flow, but primarily for northern interior
locations closer to the periphery of the flow of the upper-low. The
latest CAMs and HREF agree with this outcome. Thunderstorms look
unlikely due to a more stable airmass. Did not include thunder
chances in the forecast, but an isolated rumble could still be
possible.

Westerly flow should keep temperatures in the 80s for most, but with
dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s, it will feel less humid than
Thursday. A well-mixed boundary layer may also allow for some
westerly wind gusts near 20mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There are no significant changes to the forecast thinking this
weekend through much of next week.

*Key Points*

*Broad low pressure will meander over Northern New England and
southeast Canada this weekend through early next week.

*Dry conditions on Saturday will be followed by a chance of showers
late Saturday night into Sunday with a cold front passage.

*A few weak fronts or surface troughs may pass early next week, but
conditions should remain mainly dry.

*Temperatures likely end up a few degrees above normal this weekend,
trend near normal early next week, then edge above normal middle of
the week.

Anomalous upper low will slowly move across Northern New England
Saturday and then meander over southeast Canada Sunday. The upper
low should shift towards the Maritimes early next week.
The flow aloft over the region will be nearly zonal on Saturday and
this will prevent any development of afternoon/evening showers. A
stronger vortmax will swing around the upper low towards the area
Saturday night into early Sunday. This will help send a cold front
across the region and bring a chance for showers. Instability looks
limited given the timing and have left mention of thunder out of the
forecast for now. The upper trough axis associated with the upper
low then lingers over the region Monday. The guidance indicates the
trough axis could shift offshore Tuesday, but it may also remain
nearby. While moisture and lift are limited, an isolated shower is
possible Monday afternoon and evening and then again on Tuesday.

The trough should be replaced with a middle level ridge Wednesday,
but the modeling does not agree on if it will remain overhead or
push offshore quickly with the approach of the next shortwave. Have
followed the NBM which yields a slight chance PoP Wednesday and
Thursday given the uncertainty. A faster shortwave could introduce a
higher chance for shower Wednesday. A slower trough would lead to
dry conditions for the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front slowly pushes through the terminals tonight. Weak
high pressure remains for Friday with a weak cold front or
trough moving through late in the day to early evening.

Mainly VFR, however sub-VFR for some terminals north of the
city terminals this evening along with some showers.

Light S-SW winds bcmg more westerly by 03z, then WNW-NW
overnight. Winds back WSW-SW late Friday morning/early
afternoon, then shift back WNW behind a weak cold front/trough
late day/early evening. Gusts up to around 20kt during the
afternoon and evening.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance of a shower this evening, but probably not affecting
flight categories for very long, if at all.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR.

Saturday-Sunday. VFR, MVFR possible with a chance of showers
late Saturday night through Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers Tuesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA continues for the ocean waters through tonight. Marginal seas 4-
5ft and southerly gusts 20-25kt look to continue until early Friday
with the frontal system in the vicinity.

Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00" with localized higher amounts are
expected through tonight. Minor nuisance poor drainage flooding will
be the primary threat especially in urban and low lying areas. The
flooding potential will be limited due to the expected speed of the
showers and thunderstorms.

No hydrologic impacts are expected this Friday and weekend into
early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have continued the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal
Fairfield, Westchester, and S Nassau counties for this evening`s
high tide cycle. Elevated astronomical high tides associated with
the new moon combined with onshore flow will continue to support
water levels touching or just surpassing minor flood benchmarks in
these areas.

Water levels may just touch or slightly exceed minor benchmarks for
the same locations with Friday evenings high tide cycle.
Guidance appears to have come down with the latest data. Prefer to
hold off on issuing any statements or advisories until this evenings
high tide passes and we can assess the latest data tonight.

A high rip current risk continues early this evening at Suffolk
County beaches with moderate elsewhere. There is also a
moderate rip current risk Friday and Saturday at all Atlantic
beaches due to 3-4 ft seas and lingering southerly swell. This
is supported by the latest RCHMOS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Friday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ071.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
     081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...