660
FXUS61 KOKX 191111
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
711 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Northeast will gradually strengthen
and build south to the Mid Atlantic states into Monday. The
high will then gradually slide east through midweek. A cold
front approaches from the west Wednesday night and moves across
Thursday into Thursday night. Brief weak high pressure returns
towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Minor adjustments with this update to add patchy fog across
eastern LI and initialize with latest obs.

Ridging builds in both aloft and at the surface through tonight.
This will keep the area under a NE-E flow. While some of the
guidance indicates some partial clearing working south across
the Lower Hudson Valley this morning, that has yet to materialize.
Regardless, there looks to be enough low-level moisture coupled
with daytime heating to allow clouds to reform across this area.
Late day clearing is then expected from west to east. Additionally,
have kept in a slight chance of light rain or drizzle across
far eastern LI and SE CT this morning.

Highs today look to be touch warmer than Saturday, raging from
the lower to mid 60s across eastern LI/SE CT and the south shore
of LI, to the lower and mid 70s for NYC and points north and
west. This is very close to normal.

For tonight, low clouds may once again reestablish themselves,
especially for coastal locations east of NYC. Some drizzle may
be possible out on the twin forks of LI. Lows will be in the
50s, which is again close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Early morning low clouds on Monday, especially areas east of
NYC, will gradually lift and dissipate by early afternoon. A
high amplitude upper level ridge moves across the area Monday
into Tuesday, with surface high pressure along the coast
gradually sliding east out into the Atlantic. This will be a dry
period along with steady climb in temperatures. Highs across
the interior will go from the mid ad upper 70s Monday, to the
lower and mid 80s on Tuesday. Coastal locations will rise into
the lower and mid 70s during this time, except cooler along the
immediate south of LI. Lows will be on the climb as well with
some locations only getting as low as the lower 60s Tuesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Points*

** Summerlike temperatures away from the coast Wed and possibly Thu.

** A cold front approaches Wed Night and crosses the area Thu into
Thu Night, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Upper ridging nosing into the region from the southern US will
become suppressed late in the week in response to a closed upper low
drifting northeast across southern Ontario/Quebec. Still quite a bit
of model spread on the evolution of this upper low between more
progressive GEFS and slower ECE/GEPS, which manifests in timing and
progressiveness differences in the resultant surface low, and cold
front pushing towards the region Wed Night into Thu, and through
Thu/Thu Night.

Before then, good agreement in high pressure along the coast Monday,
sinking SE of the region and developing a return deep SW flow into
the region midweek. A shearing shortwave tracks east into northern
New England Tuesday Night, with weak surface wave along warm front,
but appears this disturbance should remain well north of the region.

Otherwise, summerlike temps away from the coast Wed, and potentially
Thu (about 10 to 15 degrees above normal). NBM distribution has
trended slightly higher than 24 hrs ago, while bias corrected NBM
has sunk to near near the 25th percentile. Based on synoptic setup,
and 850mb temps 16-17c (a slight upward trend), have continued to
utilize the warmer NBM 50th percentile (highs in the mid to upper
80s) for NE NJ and areas to the NW for Wed. NBM 75th percentile has
temps in the lower 90s in this area, which is plausible with deep
mixing and more of a SW flow. Meanwhile, S/SW flow off mid 50 degree
waters will likely keep temps in 70s along the south coast, but
still slightly above seasonable. Similar temp distribution possible
on Thu if slower progression of cold front (ECE/GEPS) materializes,
otherwise a GEFS solution would likely hold temps in the lower to
mid 80s for NYC/NE NJ and interior, with 70s coast.

Shower/tstm potential exists ahead/along pre-frontal trough and cold
front, but coverage/intensity will be dependent with aforementioned
upper low and frontal timing differences. A a slight chance for Wed
aft/eve west of Hudson, with better chance Thu aft/eve. CSU MLP
marginal severe storm threat for areas west of the Hudson River
Wed eve, and marginal for much of the region (away from marine
influence) and sliver of slight from Mid-Atlantic into NE NJ
looks reasonable based on synoptic and thermodynamic setup.

Model consensus signals drying conditions on Friday in wake of
initial cold front, although secondary cold front/surface troughing
likely lingers. Cooler temps than Wed/Thu, but still could be
several degrees above normal (70s to lower 80s) with lagging weak
caa.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through
Monday.

MVFR cigs this morning, with gradual improvement to VFR through
the afternoon from w to e (except KGON). MVFR cig development
likely late tonight into Monday AM push for most terminals.

NE winds around 10kt through today, with occasional gusts to mid
teens for eastern terminals in the aft. Winds may veer to E/SE in
the afternoon. Light E/NE winds tonight.

 ..NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of cig improvement this aft may be off by an hour or two.

Timing and amount of veering of winds from NE to E/SE this
afternoon may need amending.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday...MVFR morning, then VFR. NE winds AM, then SE PM.

Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR. S/SW winds with occasional aft gusts to 20
kt.

Thursday...VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions anticipated across all waters through
the middle of next week. The exception will be the potential for
marginal southerly SCA gusts and ocean seas in and around the
entrance to NY Harbor with coastal jet formation Wed aft/eve,
and potentially Thu aft/eve dependent on cold frontal timing.
Wind/wave conditions likely relax on Friday in wake of the cold
front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW