314
FXUS61 KOKX 281441
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1041 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front remains nearby through this afternoon. A weak
trough moves through tonight, with high pressure briefly
building in Monday. A back door cold front moves through Monday
night followed by another frontal system for late Tuesday. The
frontal system exits the area on Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Thursday and Friday. Another frontal system then
approaches for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rain showers have ended across the region for now and clearing skies
are observed on visible satellite off to the north and west. This
drier air should make its way east into the afternoon, and allow
temperatures to warm up nicely away from maritime influence,
generally west of the Hudson. Rain chances increase once again as
additional shortwave energy rides over the ridge late this afternoon
and this evening. Increased PoPs to low likelies or high chance (50
to 60%) after 21Z for showers, with the possibility of a couple
thunderstorms as well, especially into the Lower Hudson Valley. A
few gusty downpours can`t be ruled out with this activity.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track and previous discussion
follows.

A warm front remains nearby through the day. SW flow should
give temperatures a boost compared to recent days. There will
also be some clearing late morning into the afternoon. Even with
mostly cloudy skies, the air mass is much warmer with 850 mb
temps 11 to 13C (compared to 3 to 6C Saturday afternoon). The
spread of high temperatures has been reduced, but the NBM
deterministic and MOS output still lie at or below the 25th
percentile, especially for NE NJ and the NYC metro. These
outputs have typically been running too cool in similar setups,
so will continue to side with the NBM 50th percentile, which
yields highs in the upper 70s to around 80 for NE NJ, portions
of the NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. Highs could end up a
few degrees higher, especially in the normally warmer locations.
Onshore component of the wind across Long Island and
Connecticut will prevent temperatures from rising as much, but
should still reach the 60s to around 70 away from the immediate
shore.

Another shortwave passes to the north late in the afternoon
and evening. Some vorticity energy dives southeastward around
the periphery of the high amplitude ridging aloft, helping to
push a weak surface trough across the area. Several CAMs are
signaling isolated-scattered convection, first across the Lower
Hudson Valley just before sunset, and then potentially the rest
of the area around our just after 00z. Model soundings are
showing an average of 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. The NAM hints at
some capping aloft, so will only mention slight chance of
thunder for now. Brief downpours are possible, but no severe
weather is expected out of this activity. Any convection the
first half of the night quickly diminishes with dry conditions
prevailing after midnight. It will be much milder with lows in
the 50s to potentially low 60s in NE NJ and NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The high amplitude middle and upper level ridging will
continue over the eastern seaboard on Monday. The passage of
the weak surface trough will leave behind a NW-N flow and a bit
deeper mixing on Monday. Weak high pressure will remain over the
region. There is still uncertainty with how high max temperatures
will reach mainly due to timing of a back door front and any
lingering cloud cover. The deeper mixing and NW flow should
allow for temperatures to reach summerlike levels based on
conditions being favorable for quick warming during the first
half of the day. Models also tend to run too cool in early
season warmth, similar to this setup. The NBM deterministic and
MOS guidance continues to run close to the 25th percentile.
Given the aforementioned setup, have gone close to the NBM 50th
percentile resulting in highs in the upper 70s and low 80s
across CT, Lower Hudson Valley, and Long Island. Highs in NE NJ
and the NYC metro are generally in the middle 80s. The potential
continues to be there for temperatures to reach the upper 80s
and possibly make a run at 90 in NE NJ potentially at Central
Park. See climate section for records for April 29th.

The back door cold front moves through Monday evening into
Monday night from northeast to southwest. Easterly flow
develops which could set the stage for a few showers, but for
now will leave the forecast mainly dry. Think low cloud
development is more probable especially as the front works its
way east of the area.

The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east on Tuesday as
a shortwave axis approaches from the west. A wave of low
pressure will develop along the front to our west Tuesday and
then slowly slide east across the region Tuesday night. Chances
for showers begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and especially
Tuesday night. There may even be a few thunderstorms with
instability aloft. Not anticipating strong convection at this
time with the stable surface and easterly flow. Highs on Tuesday
will be cooler ranging from the upper 50s and low 60s east to
the upper 60s and lower 70s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period
 followed by a slight warmup for the week`s end into next
 weekend.

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and
 thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area
 during the period.

Decent model agreement on a shortwave heading east of the
forecast area on Wednesday AM as the trough axis shifts
offshore. Upper ridging then builds back into the north east
becoming a bit more amplified by the weekend. At the surface,
weak sfc low and attendant fronts continue to head offshore on
Wednesday. Shower chances remain for at least the first half of
the day until the aforementioned trough axis clears the area.
Clouds will be slow to clear, but should become partly cloudy
everywhere by late afternoon.

Surface high pressure then returns for Thursday and Friday, and
it should remain mostly dry during this period under the large
scale subsidence. Another upper low then ejects out of the
Northern Plains and heads into Canada late Friday into Saturday.
An accompanying frontal system with this low then impacts the
area late Friday into Saturday with additional chances of
showers and possibly some thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak warm front will dissipate over or move north of the
terminals this morning, with a weak trough approaching this
evening and crossing through overnight.

AM MVFR cigs will give way to VFR from w to e btwn 15 to 17z.
Potential for another round of showers, with a low chance of
thunder for KSWF, during evening push. Timing could be as early
as 21z for NW terminals. Slight chance of thunder for NYC/NJ
metro terminals this eve, but confidence is too low to
explicitly put in TAFs at this point.

SW winds increase to 7 to 10 kt late morning, backing to S/SW
for coastal terminals this afternoon with sea breeze. Winds
veering SW and weaken this evening, becoming light W/NW late
tonight with trough passage.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement to VFR may be off by an hour or so. Timing of
showers this evening may be an hour or two off. Slight chance of
thunder, focused around 23-02z this evening. S seabreeze of 10
to 15 kt likely for KJFK btwn 19z and 23z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Tonight: SHRA threat ending by 06z. VFR with a light W/NW flow.
Patchy MVFR fog possible towards morning push.

Monday: Patchy early AM MVFR, then VFR. NW/N winds under 10 kt
AM, shifting to E/SE winds in the aft/eve. Slight chance of PM
shra/tsra.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through middle
to late next week under a weak pressure gradient regime.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for April 29th

EWR: 91/1974
BDR: 86/2017
NYC: 89/1974
LGA: 88/2017*
JFK: 85/2017
ISP: 85/2017

*Also occurred in previous years

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/DS
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DBR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DS
CLIMATE...