985
FXUS61 KOKX 230604
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
204 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches overnight and slowly moves through the
area Thursday and Thursday night, moving offshore sometime early
Friday morning. Weak high pressure builds on Friday. A weak low
passes through the area late Saturday into early Sunday. A deep
low pressure system tracks through the Great Lakes and into
Canada late Sunday through Tuesday with the system`s warm front
passing north Monday and its associated cold front moving
through Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With cell moving out of Orange County, and becoming stratified,
and CAMs not indicating any farther development until early
Thursday morning, updated probabilities.

A mid-level low, embedded in the broader upper level trough
over the western US, lifts north of the Great Lakes tonight. The
associated surface low will also pass well to our north and
west, but will send a cold front towards our area. Ahead of the
front, a S/SW flow has brought in a warm and humid airmass with
850mb temps around 16 to 18C and surface dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s for most. Moisture will continue to increase ahead of
the front tonight, with guidance showing pwats peaking around
1.60 inches tonight into early Thursday. These pwat values are
over the 90% moving average for the 12z 05/23 sounding at OKX
per the SPC Sounding Climatology Page.

The next best chance / likelihood for showers and thunderstorms
will be as the cold front starts to slowly move through the
area Thursday morning. Given the environment, with MLCAPE values
around 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increasing to around
35-40 kt, some storms could become strong to marginally severe.
The SPC continues to outline the area in a "marginal" risk of
severe weather, with large hail and damaging winds being the
main threat. Given the high pwats, any thunderstorms could also
produce heavy downpours. At this time, there are no flooding
concerns.

Given the activity in the morning, it will be difficult to
destabilize again for the afternoon and reinitiate convection.
We will likely see just a few lingering showers as the front
continues to sag through the area. However, if we end up seeing
less or no activity in the morning, the stronger showers/
thunderstorms could be in the afternoon. For this reason, have
left chance of thunder through the day Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
With the front slowly sagging south, a chance of showers and
thunderstorms continue through Thursday night, mainly for the
southern half of the area. The front likely finally passes south
early Friday morning. With plenty of clouds around, above
normal low temperatures are expected. If the front moves through
northern locations a bit quicker and they get under some
clearing, some of these locations could drop lower than the
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front exits Friday morning with any lingering precip
quickly exiting with the front. The cold front will not help
cool things down much, with afternoon temperatures still
expected to reach the mid-80s to mid-70s. The front will,
however, help dry us out, reducing any chances for showers or
thunderstorms. Sunny to mostly sunny conditions are expected on
Friday.

Zonal flow will remain aloft through the weekend with above normal
temperatures and occasional shortwaves. Moisture will increase late
Saturday with a returning southerly flow. Shower chances will
increase with it late Saturday into Saturday night with slighter
better chances for a few thunderstorms in the western interior
developing along a passing warm front.

Rain chances increase early Monday into Monday night then linger in
the forecast through Wednesday. A Great Lakes low will lead to a
stalled boundary that will pass as a warm front on Monday, then
bring a cold front Tuesday or Wednesday as it tracks into Canada
and/or New England. The warm front will bring us into the warm
sector of the system and bring a chance for thunderstorms across the
area late Monday into early Tuesday. The pressure gradient front the
low passing to the north may lead to breezy conditions late Monday
into early Tuesday. Guidance varies somewhat on the timing and
location of this system so have kept chance POPs throughout Tuesday
and Wednesday. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal Monday
through mid-week aided by an approaching and deepening trough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front approaches tonight into Thursday pushing through
Thursday night.

Outside of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday morning into
the early afternoon hours, conditions are expected to be VFR,
including eastern terminals where MVFR or lower conditions
tonight now appear to be unlikely.

S to SSW winds tonight under 10 kt shift briefly shift to the
WSW to W around 14Z Thursday (western terminals) and 17Z
Thursday(eastern terminals) as a pre- frontal trough moves
through. Winds shift back to the S to SW in the afternoon before
the passage of the cold front between 06Z Friday or thereafter.
Any gusts will be associated with thunderstorms, generally up to
20 kt. However, stronger thunderstorms will be associated with
gusts of 30 to 40 kt, of which there is a low chance of this
happening.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the pre-frontal trough
from west to east 13Z-17Z for western terminals and 15Z-19Z for
eastern terminals. Brief MVFR conditions possible with these
showers and thunderstorms.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected through 10Z. Amendments may be
needed towards the Thu morning push if thunderstorm activity
arrives earlier than expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: VFR expected. Low chance of MVFR or lower.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Chance of afternoon/evening showers and possibly a tstm,
with MVFR cond possible.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with MVFR cond
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will generally remain below SCA criteria through
Thursday night, with wind gusts potentially briefly reaching 25 kt
this evening. A cold front approaches late tonight and slowly moves
through the area on Thursday. Some showers and thunderstorms ahead
and along the front are possible tonight through Thursday night,
with the highest chances being Thursday morning/early afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Thunderstorms are possible Thursday, with potential for heavy
downpours mainly during Thursday morning/early afternoon. At
this time, no hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle
of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT