631
FXUS61 KOKX 082053
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
453 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides south of the area tonight. A cold front is
expected to move through on Sunday. A series of weak cold
fronts or troughs will move across the area Monday and Tuesday,
followed by high pressure building in for the middle of the
week. A frontal system may impact the area for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure will nose in from the northeast along a surface trough
resulting in an increase of mid-level clouds overnight. Showers will
develop ahead of the shortwave by Sunday morning. Otherwise, it
should remain dry for much of the night with lows in the upper 50s
to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will move across on Sunday bringing a chance of
showers to the area.  At this time instability is limited and most
forcing looks to stay north of the CWA. Also, the timing of the
frontal passage appears to be around midday to early Sunday
afternoon which will hurt any chances of convection across the area.

Winds will be a bit gusty out of the southwest on Sunday as the
front moves through the area. Dry conditions expected Sunday
evening and night with a westerly wind returning.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**Key Points**

*Warming trend mid to late week, with increasing chances of above
normal temperatures.

*Mainly dry conditions through the period.

*A frontal system may impact the area with showers and
 thunderstorms Friday into next weekend.

An anomalously strong upper trough over eastern Canada and the
Northeast (2-3SD) will slowly lift out to start the week, but
before doing so one last piece of shortwave energy closes off
at the base of the trough Monday night into Tuesday. There are
some small differences between the global models in the
placement of the feature, but regardless of the solutions, the
forecast is mainly dry with the exception of a low chance of
showers across some of the interior Monday afternoon into early
evening. Thereafter, shortwave ridging aloft briefly builds
across the area midweek in tandem with surface high pressure.
While the upper flow flattens out with a fast flow from the
Northern Plains into the Northeast, this is brief as the upper
trough reestablishes itself by next weekend. The associated
frontal system brings increasing chances for convection, mainly
Friday into Friday night. Global models beyond this time point
toward significant height rises for the following week with the
potential for very warm conditions.

As for temperatures, generally stayed close to the NBM. While
the deterministic highs continue to be in the 10th-25th
percentile, not convinced with the thermal profiles to deviate
too much. This results in a gradual warming trend from the
middle to end of the week. Temperatures at the onset are close
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in slowly through this afternoon. A
cold front approaches the area from the west into early Sunday
and moves across during the day.

VFR through tonight. Clouds increase ahead of an approaching
cold front late tonight. Showers become possible late tonight
and into early morning on Sunday with a chance of MVFR cigs
through 18Z for much of the terminals. Improvement expected to
VFR during the afternoon.

W/WNW winds this afternoon 10-15 G20-25kt. Some gusts upwards of
30 kt possible this afternoon but stronger gusts should be more
occasional. Gusts diminish tonight and wind shifts to the SW and
S late tonight at around 5 kt. Winds back to the SW and W again
with the approach of the cold front Sunday morning then shift
back W/WNW tomorrow afternoon behind the cold frontal passage.
Some gusts upward of 20-25kt will be possible Sunday afternoon.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected through tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any remaining showers early
in the afternoon. W/NW wind gusts 20-25kt.

Monday-Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
midweek. As strengthening southerly Thursday into Friday could
produce marginal SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Atlantic ocean beaches, expect a moderate rip current risk
on Sunday, but lowering to low on Monday. A southerly swell of
3-4ft@7s on Sunday will gradually diminish Sunday night into Monday.
A moderate risk may linger into the morning hours on Monday for
SE Suffolk beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20/DW
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...20/DW
HYDROLOGY...20/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...