Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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078 FXUS66 KOTX 122206 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 306 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures today will be close to average with highs in the 70s across most of the Inland Northwest. Thursday will be warm with light winds. A cold front is expected to bring more breezy conditions Friday and Saturday. The weekend and early next week will be cool with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday and Thursday: Mostly clear skies across the Inland Northwest except for some fair-weather cumulus scattered across the WA/ID/Canadian border. Temperatures are climbing into the mid and upper 70s as of early this afternoon and winds overall are much lighter than this time yesterday. Our dry conditions are still in place (relative humidity values in the low to mid 20 percent range) but the winds being more calm is a welcome break. The 12z sounding has half of the precipitable water (0.24 inches) compared to just 24- hours before (0.58 inches), which is a testament to the drying that took place yesterday. Today through Thursday the ridge of high pressure will shift eastward ahead of another dynamic front headed for the Northwest region Friday. Temperatures through early Friday will be around 5F degrees above normal under increasing cloudy skies. When temperatures are around this range above seasonal normal, we typically see HeatRisk in the yellow or minor category which means this would affect people who are extremely sensitive to heat. Temperatures in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s is quite typical for mid June across the Inland Northwest. For the week ahead, the temperatures today and tomorrow look to be the warmest before a series of weather disturbances bring breezy to windy conditions and cooler weather with increasing chances for showers. /Dewey Friday through Wednesday: Friday will be dry and breezy thanks to a trough offshore the Gulf of Alaska placing us over some stronger mid- level flow. Relative humidities will be 15 to 25 percent and winds will be 10-20 mph gusting up to 35 mph. This environment would support rapid spread of grass fires similar to yesterday. As the trough moves ashore, the focus then turns to thunderstorms over the weekend. Models indicate a 10 to 30% chance of thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with the best chances in the northern mountains of Washington and Idaho. Thunderstorms will be capable of small hail, infrequent lightning, and gusty erratic winds. Wind gusts will be stronger Saturday gusting up to 40 mph keeping the grass fire risk around despite cooler temperatures. Temperatures over the weekend will be well below normal as well with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s. Temperatures rebound into the 70s early next week and we remain unsettled. /Butler && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Terrain based cumulus will erode later this evening. Scattered mid-high clouds will filter in over the next 24 hours. The Pioneer Wildfire near the upper reaches of Lake Chelan will continue to produce smoke but shouldn`t restrict visibility at any airports. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 46 79 54 73 49 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Coeur d`Alene 46 78 53 71 47 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 Pullman 43 77 51 68 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Lewiston 50 87 57 78 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 41 78 47 75 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 70 Sandpoint 43 75 50 70 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 60 Kellogg 49 77 56 68 48 59 / 0 0 10 0 0 40 Moses Lake 47 84 52 75 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 51 81 54 72 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 47 82 51 78 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$