224
FXUS66 KOTX 101201
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
501 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Monday will see generally dry conditions along with continued warm
daytime temperatures. Limited shower chances will develop Tuesday,
along with gusty westerly winds. After temperatures drop to near
normal Wednesday, warming briefly returns for Thursday. A pattern
shift late in the week will lead to cooler temperatures, another
round of gusty winds, and shower chances for Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday night: A weak ridge will lead to warm and generally
dry conditions today across the Inland Northwest. A weak disturbance
will arrive for Tuesday, and while any precip chances will be
somewhat limited (mainly confined to our northern mountains), the
main concern will be with the accompanying gusty westerly winds.
Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph are anticipated across much of the area,
most favored across the Cascade gaps, Waterville Plateau, Columbia
Basin, Palouse, and around Spokane. Certainly something to
monitor relating to fire weather risks. /KD

Wednesday: Tuesday`s cold front will be well east of our region by
Wed morning...in the Dakotas. Surface pressure gradients won`t be
as strong as Tuesday, but will still support west winds of 10 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. The air mass
behind the front will be very dry. Afternoon relative humidity
will likely range from 10 to 15 percent in central Washington to
20 to 25 percent in the lowlands of north Idaho and eastern
Washington. The combination of warm, dry, and breezy conditions
will raise wildfire concerns for areas with dry fine fuels.

Thursday: The Inland Northwest will get a break from the wind on
Thu as a shortwave ridge migrates across the region. Winds of 5 to
15 mph will be common through the day. Our dry air mass will
support a large diurnal swing in temperatures. Morning lows will
be cooler than average with the majority of north Idaho and
eastern Washington experiencing readings in the 40s. Abundant
sunshine and warming under the upper ridge will push afternoon
highs into the upper 70s in north Idaho to the low to mid 80s in
central and eastern Washington.

Friday: There is descent agreement that another cold front will
arrive Friday, but there are differences between the ensembles
with the timing. In general, the ECMWF ensembles move the front
through the Pacific Northwest faster with a flatter jet along the
Canadian border. Over half of the ECMWF ensembles produce
sustained west winds of 20 mph or more for central and eastern
Washington. Generally speaking the GFS and Canadian ensembles are
slower and dig the upper trough along the coast Friday. With the
upper jet closer to the Washington/Oregon border, only 15 percent
of the North American ensembles forecast sustained west winds of
20 mph or more. So, if the ECMWF ensemble suite verifies, Friday
has the potential to be as windy as Tuesday (gusts 35 to 45 mph)
producing similar impacts...elevated grass fire potential and
isolated power outages. If the GFS/Canadian ensemble suite pans
out, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be pretty typical for an early
June frontal passage.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday: The depth of our incoming trough
will continue to have ramifications on the weekend forecast.
Confidence is relatively high that temperatures will be at or
below average this weekend with a good push of onshore flow. The
National Blend of Models averages the differences between ensemble
members, so it generates two or three days of 20 to 40 percent
chances of showers mainly over the mountainous terrain. This
middle of the road forecast will likely change once the models
latch onto a consolidated timing and track. So we may see a
period over the weekend or Monday with significantly higher
precipitation chances over a broader area. Fingers crossed...it
would be good to get another shot of significant precipitation in
mid June before turning the corner toward summer. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few showers/thunderstorms may continue thru the
morning across northern ID, but otherwise, dry conditions are
expected through the 24hr TAF period. The Basin can expect West
winds to reach into the upper teens.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence for local stratus formation this morning.
/KD
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  83  47  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  53  79  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        74  51  78  45  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       86  58  89  54  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       80  48  80  40  74  41 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      76  51  78  45  70  42 /  10   0  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        73  55  76  49  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     87  55  88  47  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      85  60  81  51  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           86  55  84  46  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$