113
FXUS66 KOTX 091643
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
943 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through today with showers and
thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures will continue though much
of the week, with cooler temperatures by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Update: May make an adjustment or two to the forecast for today.
12Z Kotx sounding coming in with twice as much precipitable water
compared to yesterday with values expected to range between
140-180 percent of normal as a weather disturbance moves through.
Enough instability and forcing with the evolution to continue
mention of thunderstorms, in addition to surface based convection
today there potential for some overnight as dynamics associated
with the disturbance passage may allow for the elevated nocturnal
forced variety in spots. 0-6km average winds suggest general storm
motion from southwest to northeast at around 15 to 25 mph.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An incoming weather system will increase clouds overhead
as they invade from the west and south. This will bring a 20 to
30 percent chance for showers to the region for the day from 18Z
today until 09Z Monday with the 00-09Z Monday convection threat
due to dynamics continuing on any convection as the
elevated/forced type rather than surface based as most of the
18Z-0Z convection is expected to be. Main concern with
thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds with gusts of 25-35
kts, lightning, brief downpours, and small hail. The probabilities
for thunderstorms to move over a TAF site are low (less than 25%
probability) but do have mention of mention of showers, which
carries higher confidence. Some MVFR fog and stratus may form
Monday morning in response to today/tonight`s expected rainfall.
/Pelatti

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through Sunday
afternoon, except for localized restrictions under any
thunderstorms that develop. Lower confidence for the MVFR fog and
stratus that may form Monday morning. /Pelatti

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  54  81  53  81  47 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  54  78  52  78  47 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        75  52  75  51  78  47 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       84  60  86  58  88  55 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       80  48  81  48  80  42 /  30  30  10   0  20   0
Sandpoint      77  52  75  51  75  45 /  20  30  10   0  10  10
Kellogg        78  56  73  55  74  49 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     86  55  88  54  86  48 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      83  58  84  58  80  52 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           85  54  88  53  84  48 /  30  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$