Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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901 FXUS66 KOTX 060432 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 932 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather is expected over the next couple days as high pressure builds over the region. The weekend will be very warm with afternoon temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. A weak weather system Saturday night into Sunday looks to bring a chance for showers and possibly strong thunderstorms to the region. Above normal temperatures continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday night through Saturday: Temperatures will warm across the Inland Northwest over the next several days as a flat ridge builds from the south. By Friday, a deep low will move into the eastern Pacific and amply the ridge over the Pacific Northwest Friday into Saturday. As this ridge amplifies, temperatures will warm into some of the warmest values the region has seen this year with 80s to low 90s on Friday and then into the mid 80s to mid 90s by Saturday. Followed by several days of near to below average temperatures, many people will not be acclimated to this level of heat yet. Be prepared for these hot temperatures if you are heading outside this weekend. Water temperatures are currently in the 40s and 50s across the Inland Northwest, so if you choose to spend time near or on water please use caution and keep an eye on children. While it might seem like a good idea to cool off near the water, unplanned immersions can quickly become life threatening due to cold water shock, incapacitation, or hypothermia. Saturday night through Sunday: This will be the period to keep an eye on over the next couple days as models continue to show this trough progressing eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This will bring increasing cloud cover and instability to the region Saturday night to Sunday. There still remains a good amount of uncertainty in the exact timing and strength of this shortwave, but this will bring the potential for strong thunderstorms across the region early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Although this is one of stronger solutions, the deterministic GFS continues to show the potential for stronger convection with surface based CAPE up to 1500 J/kg and 35 to 50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear across the southern Idaho Panhandle by Sunday afternoon. We will continue to monitor this potential. Outside of the risk for convection, the increase in clouds will work to keep temperatures warm Saturday night. Low temperatures Saturday night will flirt with near-record warm values for some spots across the region (lows in the low to mid 60s) as these clouds work against radiative cooling effects. Temperatures on Sunday will cool by about 5 degrees. Monday through Wednesday: Models continue to diverge on the forecast scenarios through the middle of next week. While there is general agreement that temperatures will stay warm as the ridge attempts to rebuild into the Pacific Northwest, there are significant differences on the overall strength of the ridge. About 50% of ensembles show the ridge re-amplifying with the return of widespread temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s. The other 50% show a weaker ridge, with relatively cooler temperatures (although still above normal) and breezy afternoon winds. /vmt && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions with terrain driven winds are expected across the Inland Northwest as high pressure builds. A weak weather system moving across British Columbia will allow mid to high level clouds to stream across the region through Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions across most of the area today. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 46 79 52 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 45 76 52 82 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 44 76 50 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 52 86 58 91 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 39 78 45 84 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 43 74 49 80 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 48 75 55 80 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 46 86 54 90 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 52 84 58 88 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 47 84 53 89 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$