806
FXUS64 KOUN 252331
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX
631 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A Moderate severe risk will remain through much of our Oklahoma CWA
to an Enhanced risk across our Texas CWA through midnight with the
potential of severe storms rapidly growing to supercells initiating
east of an approaching dryline and Pacific-based cold front.
Increasing moisture will continue to destabilize the warm sector
which includes our entire CWA while strong mixing off the surface
may erode a weak cap as a low-level jet will be strengthening
overnight.  Steepening mid-level lapse rates will result in strong
to extreme Mixed Layer CAPE values.  The strong instability along
with strong shear could start convective initiation later this
afternoon into the evening hours with supercells producing very
large hail while DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg could produce
over 80 mph downburst winds as well as a risk for tornados. Should
it develop, it would be fairly fast moving across our CWA and
exiting after midnight as the surface boundaries (dryline/cold
front) start pushing in from the west. Expecting Sunday to be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

We are still expected to stay dry next week Monday but the forecast
becomes "wetter" from Tuesday on with increasing storm probabilities
through the latter half of next week.  Although sunny and
unseasonably warmer (upper 80s to lower 90s) but less humid on
Monday, increasing afternoon cloud cover will be cooling
temperatures to more seasonably average as next week progresses.
However, could still feel muggy if the moister ECMWF solution is
correct.

Models in agreement with an upper ridge building over the western
U.S. returning the Southern Plains to a northwest flow pattern
expelling a series of shortwaves resulting in MCS activity coming
down from the Central & Southern High Plains.  As a result, will
maintain POPs for elevated storms from this complex every
evening/night starting Tuesday.  Down in the lower levels, models
also in agreement with increasing moisture transport reforming a
dryline lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies with each daytime
punch only making it to the New Mexico/Texas state lines.  Models do
differ with the strength of the moisture return and instability into
our area with the ECMWF more aggressive and unstable advecting upper
60s dew points by Wednesday along with a warm front lifting into our
area on Friday.  Meanwhile, moisture advection is slightly weaker
(lower 60s dew points) with a less defined warm front passage with
the GFS solution. Without the potential of a surface boundary until
the end of the week, both models in agreement with moisture ascent
seen in the isentropic fields from the lower through mid-levels for
warm advection rain showers although may stay capped for any surface
based convection.  Thursday night/Fridays convection could be more
widespread with a stronger vort-max coming through over a lifting
warm front.  As far as severe, the overall "moister" ECMWF would
suggest a few strong storms with up to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE although
shear would be very weak for any severe organization. Long range
models deviate at the end of this week with the handling of a large
amplitude trough digging through this weekend as per the ECMWF with
more of a short wave with the GFS solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Scattered to numerous TS will continue across much of the region
through the remainder of the evening. Coverage of TS has already
become more sparse and will continue to decrease over the next few
hours across southwestern OK and western north TX. More
widespread TS is expected to continue over northwest OK and along
and east of I-35 through the mid to late evening hours. Outside of
convection, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites.

TS will exit the region late this evening, at which point a strong
low level jet will result in LLWS at all sites which will persist
through early Sunday morning. Some MVFR CIGs may also develop
Sunday morning, especially north and east of OKC, but confidence
is too low to include TAF mention at this issuance. Southerly
winds tonight and early Sunday will become west-northwesterly by
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  91  61  87 /  40   0   0   0
Hobart OK         64  94  60  92 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  72  97  63  92 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           60  89  54  91 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     68  88  58  86 /  60   0   0   0
Durant OK         72  94  65  89 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...LUB/30