516
FXUS64 KOUN 241739
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A cold front has entered northwest Oklahoma and will sweep through
the forecast area today, bringing marginally cooler and drier air
behind it.

As the front moves southeast of the I-44 corridor this afternoon,
CAMS show convection erupting along the front. With MLCAPE in excess
of 4,000 J/kg on the warm side of the front (albeit meager deep
layer shear), severe storms are likely in south central Oklahoma.
Storms are expected to initially be discrete with large to very
large hail as the main risk, followed by a fairly quick transition
to multicell clusters (giving a risk of hail and damaging winds).
Storms should exit our forecast area by early to mid evening.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Saturday presents another risk for severe storms in the late
afternoon and evening (SPC currently has us outlooked with an
enhanced risk).

The environment across the forecast area on Saturday afternoon /
evening will be extremely volatile with MLCAPE up to 3,000 to 5,000
joules, deep layer bulk shear of 60 to 70 knots, and low level SRH
starting around 100-200 at 00z and increasing to 300-400 through the
evening as the low level jet ramps up. This environment would be
very favorable for the development of multiple supercells Saturday
evening, capable of tornadoes (some of which may be strong), large
to giant hail, and damaging wind gusts.

A dryline will serve as the focus for storms, though there is some
uncertainty as to exactly how this will play out. Some of the CAMs
suggest two areas of convergence--the western dryline, somewhat
capped and with less surface moisture to work with; and another
dewpoint discontinuity (mid 60s vs mid 70s) closer to highway 81
(where, for example, the HRRR is initiating storms). Where exactly
storms initiate remains an open question; and it appears there may
be a low chance storms don`t initiate at all if ingredients prove to
be out of sync (as a few CAMs suggest). For now, north central
Oklahoma remains the most likely area to be affected by severe
storms.

The dryline will mix further to the east on Sunday, keeping the
severe risk in or east of our eastern counties. For the rest of us,
downsloping winds will lead to a hot afternoon across much of the
area.

Another cold front will work through much of the area Sunday night
through Monday afternoon. Monday should give us a break from
precipitation before rain chances return Tuesday through the rest of
the week.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Stratus will persist across southeast Oklahoma maintaining MVFR
conditions due to low ceilings across terminal KDUA while all of
our other terminals should remain under VFR conditions well
through 12Z. Although most terminals should remain under VFR
conditions after 12Z, increasing moisture may result in broken
stratus in southwest Oklahoma with terminals KLAW reducing to
MVFR. Expecting convective activity in the next few hours across
southeast Oklahoma which could affect terminals KDUA between
21-24Z with up to +TSRA. A cold front is currently stretched
nearly along the I-44 corridor and will continue to push into
southeast Oklahoma with surface winds out of the north at 15 kts
with 20-25 kt gusts behind the front. Surface winds will be light
and northerly after 01Z, but gradually veering southeast at 10-15
kts by 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  83  59  89  71 /  10   0  10  10
Hobart OK         85  57  94  66 /  10   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  89  63  95  72 /  10   0  10  10
Gage OK           81  53  92  61 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     81  56  87  69 /  20   0  10  40
Durant OK         91  67  89  74 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68