094
FXUS64 KOUN 280710
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
210 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Here we are, back in a stormy pattern, though different from
previous weeks. Rather than drylines and cold fronts, this week`s
weather is brought to you mainly by warm air advection and northwest
flow.

At the time of writing, we sit with easterly surface flow and a warm
front draped across north Texas from about Sweetwater to Aspermont
to Denton. A swath of 3000-4000 joules of MUCAPE is advecting north
through western north Texas and set to overspread much of western
Oklahoma by morning. With a modest low level jet and moderate deep
layer shear developing, we could (20-30% chance; note, CAMs may have
a low bias in coverage as is sometimes seen in WAA schemes) see a
few storms (including a few strong to severe) develop in this region
of warm air advection. These would mainly be elevated hailers.

Instability peaks around 12Z, then gradually dwindles north to south
through the day. However, this is when upper level support finally
gets going across much of the region, allowing for an uptick in
showers and storms. With the loss of the low level jet and dwindling
instability, severe chances will be on the downtick despite
increasing coverage of storms.

CAMs depict another round of storms developing late this afternoon /
evening off the dryline in western Texas. These storms will make
their way eastward through the evening into western north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma, though what environment they encounter will
depend partly on convection earlier in the day. Most models suggest
a lack of instability, limiting the severe risk.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

As mentioned in the short term, this week`s weather will be largely
driven by warm air advection and northwest flow, keeping rain
chances in the forecast daily (especially during overnight periods).
With sustained southerly flow, moisture and instability will likely
remain plentiful through the week (big picture view), though deep
layer shear tends to drop off after Tuesday. Flooding may become the
bigger issue as we see round after round of rainfall adding up by
late week.

With all the rain and cloud cover, temperatures will be a bit cooler
(highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s), albeit muggy. By this
weekend, however, we may see temperatures start to inch back up,
though synoptic uncertainty is high.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. Showers/storms are expected to
develop overnight/early Tuesday and continue into the evening
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  63  79  65 /  50  40  60  30
Hobart OK         82  63  80  65 /  70  60  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  83  65  81  66 /  70  60  50  30
Gage OK           81  59  80  62 /  50  50  40  40
Ponca City OK     81  62  80  63 /  30  30  40  20
Durant OK         81  65  80  66 /  50  50  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25