754
FXUS64 KOUN 280510
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Here we are, back in a stormy pattern, though different from
previous weeks. Rather than drylines and cold fronts, this week`s
weather is brought to you mainly by warm air advection and northwest
flow.

At the time of writing, we sit with easterly surface flow and a warm
front draped across north Texas from about Sweetwater to Aspermont
to Denton. A swath of 3000-4000 joules of MUCAPE is advecting north
through western north Texas and set to overspread much of western
Oklahoma by morning. With a modest low level jet and moderate deep
layer shear developing, we could (20-30% chance; note, CAMs may have
a low bias in coverage as is sometimes seen in WAA schemes) see a
few storms (including a few strong to severe) develop in this region
of warm air advection. These would mainly be elevated hailers.

Instability peaks around 12Z, then gradually dwindles north to south
through the day. However, this is when upper level support finally
gets going across much of the region, allowing for an uptick in
showers and storms. With the loss of the low level jet and dwindling
instability, severe chances will be on the downtick despite
increasing coverage of storms.

CAMs depict another round of storms developing late this afternoon /
evening off the dryline in western Texas. These storms will make
their way eastward through the evening into western north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma, though what environment they encounter will
depend partly on convection earlier in the day. Most models suggest
a lack of instability, limiting the severe risk.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

We will continue to see shortwaves across our area as the weak upper
ridge gradually builds over the Southern Plains through Thursday.
Warm advection will persist north of the stalled frontal boundary
across central Texas which may eventually lift as a warm front into
our area late this week (Thursday/Friday). The Southern Plains will
remain situated well east of the dryline so the moisture & potential
instability won`t be going away through the long term.  As our weak
ridge exits on Thursday, weak troughing will start digging through
the western U.S. although models deviate with the eastern
progression of the trough by Sunday.  However, we`ll continue to
have shortwaves expelled downflow from the trough. With all the
forcing & moisture, we`ll remain in a "wet" pattern through this
weekend with storm POPs every day through early next week. Although
deep-layer shear will be on a decreasing trend by Wednesday for
organized convection, moderate CAPE values may be sufficient for at
least strong to low-end severe storms. Accumulating rainfall each
day could start to pose a flooding risk toward the latter part of
this week, especially across our southern CWA which could see 4-5
inches storm total rainfall accumulations through Friday.  Can`t
rule out a flood watch being issued in the next couple of days.

Temperaturewise, we`ll see a cooling trend with mild temperatures
falling slightly below seasonably average with the increasing cloud
cover and rain potential.  However, upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints
will still make it feel humid through much of the southern half of
our forecast area.  Our cooling trend may end this weekend and
becoming hotter again by early next week back into the upper
80s/lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. Showers/storms are expected to
develop overnight/early Tuesday and continue into the evening
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  63  79  64 /  50  60  60  30
Hobart OK         82  63  80  64 /  70  70  60  50
Wichita Falls TX  84  66  80  67 /  70  70  60  40
Gage OK           82  60  78  62 /  50  70  50  60
Ponca City OK     81  61  80  62 /  30  30  30  30
Durant OK         83  66  80  65 /  50  60  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...25