Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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754 FXUS64 KOUN 280510 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Here we are, back in a stormy pattern, though different from previous weeks. Rather than drylines and cold fronts, this week`s weather is brought to you mainly by warm air advection and northwest flow. At the time of writing, we sit with easterly surface flow and a warm front draped across north Texas from about Sweetwater to Aspermont to Denton. A swath of 3000-4000 joules of MUCAPE is advecting north through western north Texas and set to overspread much of western Oklahoma by morning. With a modest low level jet and moderate deep layer shear developing, we could (20-30% chance; note, CAMs may have a low bias in coverage as is sometimes seen in WAA schemes) see a few storms (including a few strong to severe) develop in this region of warm air advection. These would mainly be elevated hailers. Instability peaks around 12Z, then gradually dwindles north to south through the day. However, this is when upper level support finally gets going across much of the region, allowing for an uptick in showers and storms. With the loss of the low level jet and dwindling instability, severe chances will be on the downtick despite increasing coverage of storms. CAMs depict another round of storms developing late this afternoon / evening off the dryline in western Texas. These storms will make their way eastward through the evening into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, though what environment they encounter will depend partly on convection earlier in the day. Most models suggest a lack of instability, limiting the severe risk. Day && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 We will continue to see shortwaves across our area as the weak upper ridge gradually builds over the Southern Plains through Thursday. Warm advection will persist north of the stalled frontal boundary across central Texas which may eventually lift as a warm front into our area late this week (Thursday/Friday). The Southern Plains will remain situated well east of the dryline so the moisture & potential instability won`t be going away through the long term. As our weak ridge exits on Thursday, weak troughing will start digging through the western U.S. although models deviate with the eastern progression of the trough by Sunday. However, we`ll continue to have shortwaves expelled downflow from the trough. With all the forcing & moisture, we`ll remain in a "wet" pattern through this weekend with storm POPs every day through early next week. Although deep-layer shear will be on a decreasing trend by Wednesday for organized convection, moderate CAPE values may be sufficient for at least strong to low-end severe storms. Accumulating rainfall each day could start to pose a flooding risk toward the latter part of this week, especially across our southern CWA which could see 4-5 inches storm total rainfall accumulations through Friday. Can`t rule out a flood watch being issued in the next couple of days. Temperaturewise, we`ll see a cooling trend with mild temperatures falling slightly below seasonably average with the increasing cloud cover and rain potential. However, upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints will still make it feel humid through much of the southern half of our forecast area. Our cooling trend may end this weekend and becoming hotter again by early next week back into the upper 80s/lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. Showers/storms are expected to develop overnight/early Tuesday and continue into the evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 63 79 64 / 50 60 60 30 Hobart OK 82 63 80 64 / 70 70 60 50 Wichita Falls TX 84 66 80 67 / 70 70 60 40 Gage OK 82 60 78 62 / 50 70 50 60 Ponca City OK 81 61 80 62 / 30 30 30 30 Durant OK 83 66 80 65 / 50 60 60 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...25