Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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576 FXUS63 KPAH 070514 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1214 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and less humid airmass today and even more so on Friday. - Unsettled weekend ahead with rain chances returning. It looks to be mostly cloudy along with below normal temperatures. - After a cooler and dry start to next week, guidance is trending back above normal later in the week and we may approach 90 by next Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A weak disturbance is leading to a few showers over far southern Missouri, but the trajectory of this activity and dry air near the surface suggests any accumulating precip is unlikely over the PAH portion of SEMO this afternoon. Otherwise we are warming up into the mid to approaching upper 80s with dewpoints mixing down through the day as drier air advects in from the northwest. Our next system of note appears to be Saturday through Sunday. A decaying MCS is progged to move into the area from the northwest late Saturday night into Sunday. Modest southerly moisture return may help the remnants of this system, with some weak frontogenetic forcing, gen up a few showers or storms during the day on Saturday. Fgen forcing gets a little stronger overnight Saturday and into Sunday as a surface cold front starts to push in from the north. With 3-6 km lapse rates at around 6.5 C/km there is a fairly good consensus on about 800-1000 J/kg of elevated instability to work with Saturday night. With PWATs 1.7 to 1.9 rainfall rates will likely be efficient, but I do wonder if coverage may be a touch overdone on the models given the relative lack of forcing and instability. Moisture scours out behind the front leaving warm and mostly dry conditions for the early part of the week. The GFS returns a little bit more moisture ahead of a weak shortwave trough on Tuesday. The ECMWF sends the front further south and keeps us dry for Tuesday and through the rest of the week. Tend to prefer the drier ECMWF solution for now based on the orientation of the upper flow behind the front. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Mainly clear skies through this TAF period aside from SCT cu development around 5-7kft tomorrow. NW winds, starting light tonight, then becoming 6-11 kts during the day tomorrow. Should see an increase in mid-high cloud toward the very end of this TAF cycle and beyond. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...SP