Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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809 FXUS63 KPAH 112247 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 547 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much warmer temperatures arrive by end of the week with heat and humidity continuing to increase over the weekend and into next week. - Dry much of this week with the exception of slight chances of rain across northern areas Thursday night associated with a weak front. - More chances of rain possible next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Surface ridging will remain parked across the region Wednesday into Thursday keeping dry conditions in place. Aloft, heights will build favoring increasing temperatures as highs on Thursday reach the upper 80`s to near 90. Weak flow from the east should minimize moisture return keeping dewpoints in the 50`s to lower 60`s so not expecting heat indices really increasing until the weekend period. Guidance still favors a front moving south and pushing through the region late Thursday into Friday. There won`t be much moisture to work with but there may be just enough for a few isolated showers or storms. Slight chance PoPs are in the forecast for mainly northern portions of the area Thursday night. Upper level ridging builds across the Mississippi Valley and Southeast this weekend resulting in much warmer temperatures. There is still some disagreement in the strength and positioning of the ridge. Highs in the upper 80`s to mid 90`s seem likely at this point. Sunday is also when we start to see better return flow from the south advecting Gulf moisture poleward. Dewpoints will rise into the upper 60`s to near 70 resulting in heat indices near or just above 100 degrees. The focus for next week will be on the potential for scattered showers and storms. There is still a good deal of disagreement regarding the strength of ridging to the east. A weaker ridge may result in a few disturbances moving through the area. Southerly flow will continue to bring moisture northward resulting in lower 70 dewpoints. This coupled with temperatures in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s will keep oppressive conditions in place at least through Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be warm with low to mid 70`s this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 High pressure will keep fairly light and variable winds in place tonight through Wednesday morning. As the high drifts eastward expect winds to become southerly as they gradually increase; however, they should remain light at less than 10kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through this issuance. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight to midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Wednesday night for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...KC