269
FXUS63 KPAH 120424
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1124 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer temperatures arrive by end of the week with heat
  and humidity continuing to increase over the weekend and into
  next week.

- Dry much of this week with the exception of slight chances of
  rain across northern areas Thursday night associated with a
  weak front.

- More chances of rain possible next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Surface ridging will remain parked across the region Wednesday
into Thursday keeping dry conditions in place. Aloft, heights
will build favoring increasing temperatures as highs on Thursday
reach the upper 80`s to near 90. Weak flow from the east should
minimize moisture return keeping dewpoints in the 50`s to lower
60`s so not expecting heat indices really increasing until the
weekend period. Guidance still favors a front moving south and
pushing through the region late Thursday into Friday. There
won`t be much moisture to work with but there may be just
enough for a few isolated showers or storms. Slight chance PoPs
are in the forecast for mainly northern portions of the area
Thursday night.

Upper level ridging builds across the Mississippi Valley and
Southeast this weekend resulting in much warmer temperatures.
There is still some disagreement in the strength and positioning
of the ridge. Highs in the upper 80`s to mid 90`s seem likely
at this point. Sunday is also when we start to see better
return flow from the south advecting Gulf moisture poleward.
Dewpoints will rise into the upper 60`s to near 70 resulting in
heat indices near or just above 100 degrees. The focus for next
week will be on the potential for scattered showers and storms.
There is still a good deal of disagreement regarding the
strength of ridging to the east. A weaker ridge may result in a
few disturbances moving through the area. Southerly flow will
continue to bring moisture northward resulting in lower 70
dewpoints. This coupled with temperatures in the upper 80`s to
lower 90`s will keep oppressive conditions in place at least
through Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be warm with low to
mid 70`s this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Light winds tonight may lead to some patchy ground fog at
CGI/MVN; otherwise, the rest of the TAF sites are expected to
remain VFR. Winds will increase slightly (less than 10kts)
Wednesday afternoon before becoming light and variable Wednesday
evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Wednesday
     night for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC