055
FXUS63 KPAH 120813
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
313 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak cold front may bring some isolated showers and
  thunderstorms to the I-64 corridor Thursday night.

- The first heat wave of the summer will begin Sunday and
  continue through much of next week.

- Isolated showers and storms possible Monday through next
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Upper-level energy moving east southeast into the Great Lakes on
Thursday will bring a weak cold front to the region Thursday
night into Friday. This will result in a chance of thunderstorms
mainly along the I-64 corridor and the Evansville Tri State late
Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
primary concerns with any storms late Thursday night.

Confidence in how far the boundary makes it through the region
Friday is rather low, but most of the 00Z guidance does not
generate much, if any, QPF during the day, and WPC QPF is
virtually nil. Therefore, the NBM keeps the Quad State dry.
There will be some decent instability south of the boundary, so
an isolated shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out. We
will keep an eye on it, but for now Friday is dry.

The NBM brings the boundary through the entire region Friday and
surface high pressure behind it will bring some drier and
slightly less hot air to the northeast half of the region for
Saturday.

South winds return on Sunday as high pressure aloft builds over
the Quad State. This combination will lead to a very hot day
with high temperatures in the middle 90s. Factoring in dewpoints
in the middle and upper 60s, heat indices will approach 100
degrees over much of the region.

The main questions for next week are how strong the upper ridge
will be, and will a mid/upper-level disturbance be able to touch
off anything more than isolated thunderstorms Monday into
Tuesday? The ECMWF has been consistently stronger with the upper
ridge over the Quad State and has plenty of support from its
ensemble. The ECENS indicated a 30 year return interval for the
upper ridge, so it stands to reason if it is right we will
likely stay dry.

Meanwhile, the GFS and CMC are not as strong with the ridge and
generate more QPF mainly during the heat of the day Monday
through Wednesday. The NBM keeps at least slight chance PoPs
going each of these days, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
WPC seems to be leaning toward the drier ECMWF and has virtually
no QPF for our area.

In the absence of widespread convection, temperatures will
climb well above 90 degrees Sunday through at least next
Wednesday. With increasing moisture, lows will only drop into
the lower and middle 70s. This will be our first prolonged heat
wave of the summer, and it could last through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Light winds tonight may lead to some patchy ground fog at
CGI/MVN; otherwise, the rest of the TAF sites are expected to
remain VFR. Winds will increase slightly (less than 10kts)
Wednesday afternoon before becoming light and variable Wednesday
evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...KC