Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
383 FXUS63 KPAH 091906 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 206 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers will come to an end this evening as a front moves across the region. A much cooler night is in store with low temperatures falling into the upper 50s. - High pressure builds over the region to start off the week allowing for below normal temperatures to continue. Dry weather and a warming trend then is expected through the middle of the week with highs reaching the low 90s by late week. - Rain chances overall are very minimal through at least the first half of next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A cold front will slowly sag south through this evening as one final cluster of showers are now moving across the FA. Brief heavy downpours are possible, but these should not cause any additional flooding issues. The CAMs have struggled a bit with the northern extent pcpn, as it will not be until tonight when the PoPs are silent over the entire FA. Have bumped down NBM maxTs a few degrees this afternoon as the additional pcpn will keep temps a bit cooler. After fropa, skies will clear out tonight allowing for the boundary layer to decouple. Due to dry air advection from the north, there is not a strong signal for patchy fog, but cannot entirely rule it out near the TN border where the dewpoint depression will be a bit lower. Radiational cooling will allow for minTs to fall into the upper 50s. The week will start off with tranquil conditions as sfc high pressure builds over the FA with troughing aloft. Temps will initially be about 5-10 degrees below normal with maxTs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday and minTs in the 50s. Would not be surprised to see one or two locations briefly hit the upper 40s Tuesday morning. Temps then moderate closer to normal through the middle of the week as high pressure shifts east allowing for southerly return flow that will advect in a much warmer and moist airmass. By Thursday and Friday, slightly above normal maxTs are progged by the NBM to reach the low 90s as a cut off low off the California coast eventually ejects east and causes a ridge axis to build over the FA for the upcoming weekend. This will allow for the warmer and more humid conditions to prevail. There is one caveat to the forecast as the GFS/CMC are hinting at the possibility of a backdoor cold front on Friday with a trough digging across the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is not as amplified, but has trended more south with the front. This could briefly provide some relief to the unseasonably warm conditions, but confidence is not the greatest. While NBM PoPs are mostly silent, the GEFS does show a 30-60% probability of seeing measurable light QPF with the highest amounts along I-64, while the EPS/GEPS are more in the 10-30% range. It is worth noting that the following week may feature a more robust chance for pcpn with tropical moisture to the south. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A return to VFR conditions across all terminals is expected this afternoon as a frontal boundary slowly sags south with low sigs now scattering out. One final round of scattered SHRA is now approaching from the west as pcpn will taper off by this evening. Clearing from north to south is expected with drier air moving into the region. Northerly winds between 5-10 kts will turn light & variable tonight. Monday will start off with tranquil weather as the cu rule supports the development of scattered mid level clouds around 3-5 kft AGL by midday. North winds around 10 kts with a few gusts around 18 kts at KEVV/KOWB is expected. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW