Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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199 FXUS63 KPAH 071109 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and storm chances return late tonight through the weekend, peaking Saturday evening into Sunday morning. - A few strong storms are possible Saturday evening and overnight. Torrential rainfall may produce some flooding issues as well. - Mainly dry next week, with a warming trend expected mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Today will be a gorgeous day with a dry airmass in place. After starting the day in the mid 50s to low 60s, we warm up quickly into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s will provide a somewhat pleasant feel despite temperatures being a bit above normal. Mid-level flow will be from the west-northwest over the weekend, with disturbances riding through the area. More clouds than sun is expected. A decaying MCS is expected to move southeast into our area late tonight and Saturday morning. While this may impact the entire cwa Saturday morning, it appears the northern half of the area (S IL, SW IN, and north part of SEMO) would tend to be most favored for it. How fast it departs will dictate how much we can destabilize in the afternoon for additional development. Most guidance suggests the bulk of the afternoon may end up dry, while convection develops further upstream across central Missouri late in the afternoon along a frontal boundary. This activity then migrates southeast into our cwa during the evening and continues overnight into Sunday morning. The boundary should eventually shift south of our border, leaving most of the area dry by later in the day on Sunday or Sunday night. Guidance has trended warmer on Saturday ahead of the boundary moving through Saturday night. Of course a lot also depends on how much clearing occurs behind the morning MCS. Right now it appears plausible to have a decent gradient in highs on Saturday from upper 70s in the EVV Tri-State to pushing 90 in part of southeast Missouri. Dewpoints will quickly shoot up later in the day and evening as well, pushing into the upper 60s to lower 70s (at least across the southwest half of the area). The environment Saturday evening and overnight does appear to be conducive for a few strong to severe storms. 0-6km shear of 35-40 kts, MLCAPE of 1500-3000 j/kg, and 3-6km lapse rates of 7.5C are forecast to develop across southeast Missouri. This airmass may develop further east into parts of southern Illinois and far west Kentucky as well, although confidence further east is lower. Certainly agree with the marginal risk of severe that SPC Day 2 has for the west half of the area. Main timing is probably 00-06z, but can`t rule out some strong storms past 06z. Another concern Saturday night will be training convection along the boundary with the flow oriented more parallel to it. Precipitable water values will be at least 2 inches and possibly a bit higher. This will lead to very efficient rainfall from any storms. Several of the CAMs (NAMNest, FV3, and RRFS) show swaths of 2-3". WPC currently has part of southeast Missouri in a slight risk ERO, but there is some potential for this to expand even further east into parts of southern Illinois and west Kentucky. Certainly something to monitor at least. Early next week likely will be dry as high pressure builds across the region and the main precip gets shunted south towards the Gulf Coast. However, the 00z GFS throws a wrinkle into this with an upper low diving south out of the Northern Plains into the Midwest on Monday and across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. At the same time it tries to phase with some of the southern stream energy to keep periods of rain across the area Monday and Tuesday. Right now the drier solution tends to make more sense though. Temperatures will be a bit below normal Sunday through Tuesday, ranging from the mid 70s to around 80. Thereafter, a warming trend is likely as highs soar well back into the 80s by Wednesday or Thursday and could approach 90 by the end of the week.&& && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Mainly clear skies through this evening, with increasing high and then mid cloud tonight. -SHRA may enter our northwest counties after 08z, with KMVN the most likely terminal to experience it before the end of this TAF cycle. W/NW winds today will become light and variable after sunset. Some gusts around 15-17 kts are possible at KEVV/KOWB this afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...SP