025
FXUS61 KPBZ 090708
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
308 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers are possible along a passing cold front
between 4am to 9am this morning. Isolated rain chances are
expected north of Pittsburgh after sunset and could last passed
midnight. Below average temperatures are projected Monday into
early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A passing cold front will keep precipitation chances elevated
  for areas north of I-70 between 4am to 9am this morning.
- Near to below average temperatures are expected with a passing
  cold front today.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Hi-Res model guidance project rain chances will increase
between 4am to 9am with a passing cold front. At the moment,
low-level dry air has kept the weather quiet and is a reflection
in the ceilings (areas near and south of Pittsburgh still have
a cloud base above 6kft).

Along with rain, expect gusty conditions (30mph to 35mph) with a
low-level jet tracking over eastern Ohio into western PA. The
vertical wind profile from KPBZ has 40kts at 3kft and 50kts at
4kft.

By late morning most precipitation will likely be tracking
across the Laurel Highlands and brief ridging will lead the way
for some clouds breaking up. A new shortwave over the Great
Lakes is expected to track into the region late this evening and
isolated showers may develop near I-80. Otherwise, temperatures
will range in the upper-60s to mid-70s; clouds and rain north
of Pittsburgh will keep a few areas below average by a few
degrees.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light rain/drizzle may continue into early Monday morning
  north of Pittsburgh with a passing shortwave.
- Despite cold advection, clouds will keep temperatures near
  average.
- Temperatures will range 10 to 15 degrees below average Monday
  afternoon with clouds and lingering cold air aloft.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A building ridge axis over Minnesota and Iowa will reinforce
cold air from the north across Lake Erie. Any moisture
associated with an exiting low pressure system over the North
Atlantic may stir a few stray showers/drizzle across the region
through Monday evening. Otherwise, with clouds and 850mb temps
between 2 to 3 Celsius, temps will struggle to climb into the
60s north of Pittsburgh and may linger in the low to mid-60s
elsewhere.

High pressure and subsidence are favored for Monday night,
promoting clearing skies and more efficient radiational cooling.
Expect area low temperature to be 10 degrees below the daily
average, with a low probability for pre-dawn river valley fog
formation.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- An advancing ridge over the Midwest will return dry and warm
  conditions to the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
- An ejecting trough may return thunderstorm chances to the
  region Thursday/Friday.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensemble models continue to favor gradual height rises over the
Upper Ohio River Valley Tuesday through Thursday while surface
high pressure generally is anchored along the Atlantic Coast.
Therefore, dry and quiet weather will prevail.

A shift in the synoptic pattern is expected late Thursday with
a new upper-level trough ejecting over the Great Lakes. A
number of ensemble members suggest thunderstorm chances return
late Thursday into Friday with the break down of the ridge and
warm, moist conditions return to the region under southwest
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected to deteriorate to MVFR cigs through early this
morning as a cold front tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley
region. A band of showers is also expected along the front,
though visibility restrictions should be localized with mainly
light rain for most airports.

A wind shift to the NW is expected after FROPA around sunrise,
with MVFR cigs continuing. Wind will become gusty with mixing
and a tightening pressure gradient behind the front, with gusts
up to 20kt. Wind will diminish this evening with the loss of
mixing.

Clouds should scatter out into a cumulus/stratocumulus layer by
mid morning as surface ridging briefly builds in, with VFR
returning. Mainly mid level clouds cigs will return by evening,
ahead of an approaching reinforcing cold front.

.Outlook...
Additional restrictions and scattered showers are expected
again late Sunday night and Monday with another crossing upper
trough and reinforcing surface cold front. VFR returns Tuesday
through Thursday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan/Frazier
AVIATION...WM