Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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578 FXUS61 KPBZ 082348 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 748 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain showers are possible along a passing cold front late tonight into Sunday, with a low probability for additional showers on Monday. Temperature will fall to near 10 degrees below average by Monday before returning to above-normal temperature by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front will create a broken line of light rain showers tonight into Sunday morning. - Sunday afternoon sunshine will help to maintain seasonable temperature. -------------------------------------------------------------- Minimal changes to sky cover/wind were made to reflect current conditions. Diurnal cu should diminish but will be replaced with broader cloud coverage tonight as an upper-level trough approaches. Previous discussion follows... Gradual moist advection resulting in increased cloud cover is expected through this evening as an upper-level shortwave trough and associated surface cold front approach from the Great Lakes. Light rain showers ahead of the cold front will reach nwrn PA near midnight and then advance sewd through Sun morning. Better ascent/lift to the north is expected to result in greater accumulation for nrn zones, while weaker moisture profiles/lift limit coverage/intensity for ern OH zones. Average totals should be less than 0.10" with only a 20% probability of exceeding 0.25" north of I-80. Dry advection and subsidence will quickly erode precipitation chances behind the cold front, resulting in dry weather after 9am. Clearing sky (though some afternoon cumulus are likely to develop) will support enough insolation to maintain seasonable temperature. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Additional shortwave movement and a cold front will drop area temperature below seasonal averages. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weak embedded vortices rounding the western edge of a broad ern-CONUS trough may provide enough lift with lake moisture enhancement to generate an isolated rain shower late Sunday into Monday morning. A more notable wave movement will push a reinforcing cold front southward through the day Monday, creating low-probability light rain showers as column moisture remains limited. More notably, cooler air behind that front and an uptick in daytime cloud coverage will cause area temperature to fall 5 to 10 degrees below the daily average. High pressure and subsidence are favored for Monday night, promoting clearing skies and more efficient radiational cooling. Expect area low temperature to be 10 degrees below the daily average, with a low probability for pre-dawn river valley fog formation. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Height rises and high pressure will support dry weather and rising temperature through Thursday. - Uncertainty remains in potential late week pattern shift. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble models continue to favor gradual height rises over the Upper Ohio River Valley Tuesday through Thursday while surface high pressure generally is anchored along the Atlantic Coast. There is a high probability for this to be an extended stretch of dry weather while temperature rises to above normal levels by Thursday. More uncertainty arises in the synoptic evolution of a potential upper level wave attempting to move southeast out of Alberta. The most likely scenario sees this wave traversing just north of the region late Thursday into Friday with increases shower/thunderstorm chances ahead of the surface boundary. There remains a low probability that this wave lifts farther north, limiting precipitation chances and allowing for higher Friday temperatures. This potential trough movement is likely to be short-lived, with ridging favored in its wake over the lower Ohio River Valley by the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A mid-level cloud deck can be seen invading the area from this west this evening. This will gradually lower through the evening, with MVFR cigs expected at most terminals by around 09z as scattered showers develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Hi-res ensemble guidance continues to suggest potential IFR cigs at FKL/DUJ for a few hours in the 09Z-12Z timeframe, with the latest run maintaining a medium (~50%) chance of that occurring. Continued mention of locally lower cigs at those terminals. Showers depart to the east with the passage of the cold front Sunday morning around 12-15Z. Clouds scatter back out to VFR and winds shift to northwesterly in the wake of the front. Afternoon gusts of 15-20 kts are expected, diminishing after sunset. .Outlook... VFR prevails Sunday afternoon in the wake of the cold front passage. Additional restrictions and scattered showers are expected again late Sunday night and Monday with another crossing upper trough. VFR follows on Tuesday and Wednesday under building high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kramar/Frazier NEAR TERM...Kramar/Frazier SHORT TERM...Frazier LONG TERM...Frazier AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley