756
FXUS65 KPIH 070731
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
131 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

Warm weather continues today and should persist through the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure is bringing us the above normal
temperatures. Some moisture will continue to work through the ridge
over the weekend. As a result, we should continue to see isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon and perhaps once again on Saturday
afternoon. The models are going back and forth on whether or not
we`re capped enough for storms to pop or not on Saturday afternoon.
The ridge is a little more amplified Saturday than today which is
the issue. In any case, not looking at a wash out by any means and
the main threat would be some gusty outflow winds, perhaps as strong
as 50 mph in some cases.

Today and Saturday are the best chances to reach 90. There is a 20
to 30 percent chance for the upper Snake Plain and a 50 to 70%
chance for the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley.

13

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.

A cold front will arrive Sunday night. Ahead of the front, we`ll see
cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms develop Sunday afternoon.
This will keep temps down by a couple degrees. The odds of reaching
90 on Sunday slip to 10 to 20% for the upper Snake Plain and 30 to
40% for the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley.

The front has slowed down since the 00z run from Wednesday night. So
it looks like there`s a better chance for showers and thunderstorms
on Monday across the eastern highlands. Temps cool off into the low
to mid 80s now for Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday continues to look
dry across the region. But a few models are trying to show isolated
thunderstorms returning Wednesday into Thursday with some moisture
moving through a zonal flow pattern. Precipitation chances increases
for late week as the flow turns southwesterly and a low pressure
system sits off the coast of Washington and British Columbia. Temps
expected to warm once again later in the week, with upper 80s to
near 90 likely in the lower valleys.

13

&&

.AVIATION...Main concern involves another round of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms after 21z this afternoon. Storms could
impact TAF locations with gusty erratic winds. KSUN is the only site
where models agree storms will not affect. Winds outside of storms
today should be relatively light with upvalley/downvalley
direction changes expected at KSUN and KDIJ.

13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm weather will produce minimum humidity values in
the upper teens to mid 20s through the weekend. Isolated
thunderstorms remains possible through Saturday. A cold front will
arrive late Sunday which will produce better chances for
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

13

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING continues for portions of southern
Teton County as small streams/creeks continue to run high. Minor
flooding continues to be observed, aided by additional snowmelt from
the Tetons and Big Holes that feed into these creeks and streams as
temperatures continue to warm over the next several days. The Teton
River is also running at an elevated level and is currently forecast
to hit action level tonight while reaching minor flood level by
Sunday into Monday. Several other rivers across the CNTRL Mountains
are also seeing diurnal increases with the Big Lost River at Howell
Ranch currently hovering around action stage. Along the Snake River,
increased flows out of Palisades Reservoir has also led to the Snake
River near Heise gage climbing up to action stage and is expected to
stay there for at least the next week. MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$