Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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021 FXUS65 KPUB 042342 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 542 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather with temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels on Wednesday. - Isolated thunderstorms return to the area Thursday, then a slight increase in thunderstorm coverage expected Friday. - Trend toward cooler/wetter weather over the weekend into early next week on track, with widespread showers/thunderstorms Sat into Mon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates moderate west to northwest flow aloft across the region, with an embedded wave within the stronger flow translating across the Northern Tier. Said wave has been spreading mid and high level moisture across the region through the morning, with the latest GOES imagery indicating clearing skies across the eastern Great Basin and into western Colorado at this time. Surface data is also indicating drier air mixing down across eastern Colorado through the late morning and early afternoon, with current dew pts in the mid to upper 30s across the I-25 Corridor and in the 40s across the far southeast Plains. At 1 pm, LAA was indicating a dew pt of 49F, as compared to the 66F dew pt at 7am! Dry conditions remain in the forecast through through the day tomorrow, with moderating northwest flow aloft as upper level ridging builds across the Great Basin. Drier air within subsident flow across the region looks to keep the region dry, with only a few afternoon clouds expected across the higher terrain. With clearing skies tonight, should see lows at to slightly below seasonal levels, in the 50s across the plains, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Warming aloft along with mostly sunny skies on Wednesday should allow highs to warm to well above seasonal levels into the 90s across the plains, with 70s and 80s in the high mountain valleys and mainly 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Highs look to remain below record levels for June 5th, of 90F at ALS in 2010, 94F at COS in 2020 and 101F at PUB in 2020. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Upper level ridge remains in place the next several days over the western U.S., but with ridge position far enough west to allow a series of nwly flow weather systems and cold fronts to bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially over the weekend into next week. Detail-wise, weak cold front Wed night/Thu will usher in slightly cooler maxes to the plains for Thu afternoon, with just enough low level moisture return for some high based convection across mainly the eastern mountains by late day. Mid level heights and temps build back briefly for Friday, leading to hotter daytime highs and a continuation of mainly isolated afternoon/evening storms, as t/td spreads remain large. Strong cold front and upslope surge Friday night/Saturday then set the stage for widespread convection Saturday, focused across the eastern mountains and plains. Short-wave dives into the plains for Sunday, with enough forcing for another round of showers and storms, though wonder about air mass ending up too cool/stable if clouds linger into Sunday afternoon. Model timing/strength differences show up early next week as still more energy dives over the ridge into the central U.S., though bottom line of most solutions is for continued rainfall chances Mon/Tue, before ridge potentially comes back eastward later in the week for a return to drier/warmer conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 540 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds are becoming more northerly at KALS and KCOS this evening, but are expected to weaken quickly after sunset. Fairly light and diurnally driven winds are expected at both KCOS and KPUB for Wednesday afternoon, with variable winds persisting at KALS. Sky conditions will be clear after 06Z tonight, and precipitation is not expected. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...EHR