264
FXUS62 KRAH 241839
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid air mass over our region, combined with the passage
of a series of upper level disturbances over the area, will produce
unsettled weather through Monday, with daily chances of showers and
storms. A drier air mass will arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms mainly southern areas this
afternoon.

The skies have become partly sunny across central NC as of early
afternoon. A surface trough was analyzed over our region extending
from just east of Charlotte to near Norfolk. A disturbance aloft was
moving south from VA into northern NC. Scattered thunderstorms have
been developing around Danville to near Yanceyville associated with
the disturbance. Additional showers and iso thunderstorms were
developing around Fayetteville. Hi-res guidance continued to show
the disturbance and surface trough drifting SE with scattered
thunderstorms over the north-central and NE Piedmont this afternoon.
However, the higher instability has been developing out ahead of the
surface trough over south-central into east-central NC. As expected,
the more NW  / downslope flow in the western Piedmont has been
lowering dew points and instability there.

Areas across southern NC will get the best surface heating due to
the lack of cloudiness. This may overlap with the higher dew points
and instability later today and this evening for a few strong to
isolated severe storms. MLCAPES of 2000 j/kg are expected from the
SE Piedmont into the Sandhills and portions of the Coastal Plain.
Within the strongest updrafts, an isolated risk for strong to severe
downdrafts capable of strong to severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible. Convection should dissipate with loss of diurnal heating
as shortwave ridging builds in over central NC into VA.

A drier thermo-profile overnight will result in mostly clear skies
minus some thin cirrus and result in a more optimal radiational
cooling night and potential for patchy to areas of fog to develop
into early Sat morning. Lows will dip down into the low/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

There are lower chances of thunderstorms Saturday, but hot
temperatures expected.

A remnant MCV may be over portions of southwest or far southern NC
at the start of Saturday. The flow aloft would support this MCV
tracking ESE into southern NC or upstate SC Saturday. In addition,
weak surface troughing will hold across our Piedmont with mid/upper
troughing. Strong surface heating will aid in temperatures reaching
the 87-92 range most areas. With high moisture through the column
and higher than average dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible with heating, with
highest chance across the southwest, south, and southeast zones or
per the track of the remnant MCV and near the surface boundary. Some
of the latest hi-res models suggest that much of the convection
Saturday afternoon may be over GA/SC with a minimum over NC. This
trend will be monitored. Otherwise, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to diminish Saturday evening. Lows will
be generally 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM Friday...

Best rain chance in this stretch will be Memorial Day into the
night. A pattern change should bring a dry period for mid to late
week.

Starting Sun, with the shortwave trough expected to be shifting well
off the Mid Atlantic coast early, we`ll be under the influence of
mid level shortwave ridging building in from the W, ahead of a
potent northern stream low/trough over MT into the Midwest. While
the weak surface trough will hold in place through the NC Piedmont,
there will be little opportunity for low level moisture influx until
late in the day into Sun night, and even this is more focused to our
W. The warm and relatively stable mid levels and lull in mid level
flow along with the limited moisture transport into the area should
greatly limit rain chances, and will keep late day and evening pops
mainly in the far NW to account for any mountain convection spilling
toward our area. It`ll remain warm and humid for this time of year,
highs in the upper 80s-lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Rain chances may increase late Sun night with an upturn in low level
moisture and greater PW spreading in ahead of a pronounced low to
mid level trough that will move in from the W, attending an
approaching surface cold front. Winds at all levels will strengthen,
including a low level pump from the Gulf that starts ramping up Sun
night. The improving kinematics and vorticity maxima moving through
the mean trough base across our area in tandem with this
increasingly deep moisture should prompt high rain chances. The
severe threat with any storms is tough to pin down, as an early
arrival of frontal showers and clouds will hold down SBCAPE,
although the incoming cooling aloft and rising low and mid level
lapse rates should still allow for a risk of a few strong storms.
Still warm and muggy with highs in the upper 80s-lower 90s. Lower
dewpoints should start to filter into the NW Mon night, so expect
slightly lower lows there, mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70
across the S and E.

Behind this front, as mid-upper level longwave troughing sets up
over E NOAM with low level CAA and drying through the column, we
should see largely dry weather Tue through Thu. Some deterministic
models do slow down the cold front such that a passing wave produces
convection chances across the S and E Tue, so will leave in a low
chance there. Otherwise, will have dry conditions through Thu with
temps running close to normal. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening.
However, there is a chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm with
MVFR conditions, especially from RDU east and south to RWI and FAY
between 20z and 03z tonight. There is also a chance of low stratus
and fog late tonight and early Saturday, especially in those same
areas. Generally VFR conditions are expected Saturday.

Looking ahead: Primarily diurnally driven showers/storms will be
possible at all terminals through Tue. Late night stratus and fog
will also be possible.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett