861
FXUS62 KRAH 111410
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1010 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley today will slowly shift
into the mid-Atlantic through mid week and then shift offshore by
late in the work week. A cold front will approach the region from
the northwest on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY and TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 AM Tuesday...

Not much change needed with the morning update. A small area of
eastern counties still has a very small chance of a
shower/thunderstorm developing later this afternoon, but more than
95% of the area should remain dry today. Tweaked high temperatures
by a degree or two, but otherwise the ongoing forecast is in good
shape. Previous discussion follows.


As of 255 AM Tuesday...

The latest surface analysis shows a frontal zone to our south that
extends from the northern Gulf Coast east and northeast into
southern SC. Another more subtle boundary extends from northern SC
northeast into northeastern NC separating dew points in the lower to
mid 50s in the Triad to the lower and some mid 60s across the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Further aloft, a mid level shortwave
trough will move southeast across NC and VA this morning with a
northwest flow aloft developing this afternoon and continuing into
tonight.

As drier air moves into the region from the west, low level
moisture will linger across the coast in a region of localized
convergence. This will lead to the development of scattered
convection across the coastal regions that could drift into eastern
portions of the Coastal Plain including eastern Halifax, Edgecombe,
Wilson and Wayne Counties. Mid level capping is noted on forecast
soundings this afternoon across much of central NC but this capping
weakens to the east and is absent near the coast. The airmass in the
Coastal Plain may become weakly unstable and will include a slight
chance of an afternoon thunderstorm east of I-95 with dry conditions
elsewhere. Otherwise, expect sunshine this morning to give way to a
fair amount of cumulus clouds this afternoon and some patchy high
clouds, especially tonight. Highs today will range in the lower 80s
in the Triad and the VA border counties with mid 80s in most other
locations with a few upper 80s in the Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain. Lows tonight will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. -
Blaes
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

Generally fair weather is expected in the short term with a weak
west to west-northwest flow aloft.  Surface high pressure centered
across the OH Valley today will shift east and off the mid-Atlantic
coast on Wednesday night. This will veer the low level flow to more
east and southeasterly resulting in a moderating air mass and a
subtle increase in low level moisture. With a lack of forcing for
ascent, no organized precipitation or convection is expected
although some weak disturbances in the flow aloft will result in a
partly cloudy skies. Highs on Wednesday will warm a few degrees from
today and range in the mid 80s across the north to around 90 in the
south which is near to a degree or two above average. Lows on
Wednesday night will range in the lower to mid 60s. -Blaes
&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...

A mostly dry and warm extended period is expected under the
influence of increasingly strong mid/upper ridging.

Thursday will be dry and mostly sunny with a continued warming trend
as surface high pressure initially to our north moves offshore into
the western Atlantic and we become influenced by weak return flow.
High temperatures will be in the upper-80s to lower-90s with lows
Thursday night in the mid-to-upper-60s. Meanwhile a low will slowly
drift NE off the GA/SC/NC coast from Thursday into Friday night. A
northern stream trough will also move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast US during this period. However, forcing from both features
looks to largely miss central NC. The trough will pass well to our
north, and by the time the cold front crosses our area it will be
devoid of any upper forcing. The timing of the front (Friday
night/Saturday morning) also does not look optimal for showers and
storms. The GFS has a more tightly-wound coastal low compared to
other guidance (including its own ensembles), but even it largely
keeps any rain largely confined to the immediate coast. So only have
increasing clouds on Friday/Friday night, with just slight chance
POPs in the extreme SE. Friday looks to be the hottest day of the
period, with highs in the lower-to-mid-90s and lows in the upper-60s
to lower-70s.

Forecast confidence decreases a bit this weekend as the cold front
looks to stall somewhere south of the area and cool high pressure
builds down from SE Canada and the Northeast US. Models have trended
slightly cooler as the raw 00z GFS and ECMWF now only have highs in
the 80s in many parts of central NC on Saturday and Sunday. They
have also trended drier with dew points only in the 50s. Given these
trends, opted to undercut the NBM a bit with temperatures and dew
points. Saturday`s forecast highs are upper-80s to mid-90s and
Sunday`s are mid-80s to lower-90s. This is subject to change and
could even drop further if model trends continue. Precipitation
chances also look minimal at best with the cold front to our south
and an anomalous mid/upper ridge building into the Deep South and TN
Valley. Only continue slight chance POPs in the far SE on Saturday
and none on Sunday. By Monday, a disturbance in the western Gulf of
Mexico could begin to spread moisture to its north, but at this time
it looks to stay largely west of us as the center of the ridge moves
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 AM Monday...

High confidence of VFR conditions across most of central NC for the
24 hour TAF period. Some patchy fog across southern locations will
dissipate early this morning. Some cloudiness and isolated
convection is expected this afternoon in the coastal areas that will
near but should stay east of the KRWI terminal. Otherwise, dry
weather with areas of VFR fair weather cumulus clouds with bases of
6-8kft are expected to develop today along with periods of high
cirrus clouds today and tonight. Very light winds early this morning
will turn to mainly northerly at 4 to 8 kts today.

Outlook: generally fair weather is expected for most of the work
week with the potential for some late night/daybreak fog and
stratus. There is a small chance of a mainly afternoon and evening
shower or storm, especially across the east and southeast on Friday
and Saturday. -Blaes
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Green/Blaes
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Blaes