204
FXUS62 KRAH 110722
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley today will slowly shift
into the mid-Atlantic and persist through much of the work week. A
cold front will approach the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY and TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

The latest surface analysis shows a frontal zone to our south that
extends from the northern Gulf Coast east and northeast into
southern SC. Another more subtle boundary extends from northern SC
northeast into northeastern NC separating dew points in the lower to
mid 50s in the Triad to the lower and some mid 60s across the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Further aloft, a mid level shortwave
trough will move southeast across NC and VA this morning with a
northwest flow aloft developing this afternoon and continuing into
tonight.

As drier air moves into the region from the west, low level
moisture will linger across the coast in a region of localized
convergence. This will lead to the development of scattered
convection across the coastal regions that could drift into eastern
portions of the Coastal Plain including eastern Halifax, Edgecombe,
Wilson and Wayne Counties. Mid level capping is noted on forecast
soundings this afternoon across much of central NC but this capping
weakens to the east and is absent near the coast. The airmass in the
Coastal Plain may become weakly unstable and will include a slight
chance of an afternoon thunderstorm east of I-95 with dry conditions
elsewhere. Otherwise, expect sunshine this morning to give way to a
fair amount of cumulus clouds this afternoon and some patchy high
clouds, especially tonight. Highs today will range in the lower 80s
in the Triad and the VA border counties with mid 80s in most other
locations with a few upper 80s in the Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain. Lows tonight will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. -
Blaes
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

Generally fair weather is expected in the short term with a weak
west to west-northwest flow aloft.  Surface high pressure centered
across the OH Valley today will shift east and off the mid-Atlantic
coast on Wednesday night. This will veer the low level flow to more
east and southeasterly resulting in a moderating air mass and a
subtle increase in low level moisture. With a lack of forcing for
ascent, no organized precipitation or convection is expected
although some weak disturbances in the flow aloft will result in a
partly cloudy skies. Highs on Wednesday will warm a few degrees from
today and range in the mid 80s across the north to around 90 in the
south which is near to a degree or two above average. Lows on
Wednesday night will range in the lower to mid 60s. -Blaes
&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

The extended starts off quiet with slightly above normal
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday. Dewpoints in the 50s
to low 60s will make outside feel comfy in the morning but still
tolerable in the afternoon Wednesday. As an upper level ridge moves
across the OH valley and over the northern Mid-Atlantic region mid
week dry weather is expected across our area Wednesday through at
least Friday. Although Friday is expected to be dry across most of
the area a cold front will begin to move in from the OH valley late
Friday night and linger across the region Saturday and Sunday.
Although the initial pass of the front is expected to be dry, it
will get hung up along the eastern portions of NC and increase the
PoPs for the afternoon and early evening Saturday and Sunday. For
now have best chance for precip in the over the SW portion of the
CWA Saturday afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty
remains high for Mondays forecast as the disturbance in the Gulf of
Mexico increases chance for storms across the Deep South and
southern Mid-Atlantic region.

Temperatures during the long term are excepted to be above normal.
Wednesday and Thursday the NW portion of the region is expected to
be in the 80s while else where will creep into the low 90s. Friday
is expected to be the warmest with highs in the low to mid 90s
across the region and apparent temperatures in the upper 90s.
Saturday high temps will be similar to Friday but timing of the
afternoon storms and coverage could result in a slight trend upward
or downward in the temps. Sunday and Monday temperatures fall
slightly with the frontal passage and highs are expected to be in
the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

High confidence of VFR conditions across most of central NC for the
24 hour TAF period. An upper level disturbance will move east across
the Carolinas and VA this morning producing some scattered low and
mid cloudiness this morning. Some isolated fog is possible across
southern locations through around daybreak but coverage is expected
to be very limited. Additional cloudiness and some scattered
convection is expected across coastal areas that may be close but
should stay east of the KRWI terminal. Otherwise, dry weather with
areas of VFR fair weather cumulus clouds with bases of 6-8kft are
expected to develop today along with periods of high cirrus clouds
today and tonight. Very light winds early this morning will turn to
mainly northerly at 4 to 8 kts today.

Outlook: generally fair weather is expected for most of the work
week with the potential for some late night/daybreak fog and
stratus. There is a small chance of a mainly afternoon and evening
shower or storm, especially across the east and southeast on Friday
and Saturday. -Blaes
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Blaes