523
FXUS62 KRAH 100146
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
945 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will move through
the region tonight. A second front will drop southeast through the
area late Monday through Monday evening. High pressure will build in
from the northwest and north Tuesday through Wednesday, then move
off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Sunday...

A broken line of pre-frontal showers and a few isolated storms (in
the southern Piedmont) continue to advance ese across central NC
this evening. Outflow associated with this line continues to produce
brief gusts of up to 30 mph (Sanford-Lee County airport (KTTA)
recently observed a 36 mph gust).  While the  strongest instability
is largely shunted to our south, outflow associated with these
showers/isolated storms will continue to generate brief gusts of up
to 30 mph through the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain the next few
hours. This band of precipitation should push east of our area in
early overnight period. However, guidance continues to suggest at
least a chance for some re-development of showers across our far
southern zones near daybreak tomorrow. Otherwise, expect overnight
lows in the lower 60s to around 70 (south).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

...Lingering rain chances across southern NC through early Monday...


The effective, lead cold front is forecast to be well south of the
area by daybreak. However, weak perturbations embedded within the
plume of deeper moist and weak instability lingering across the far
southern zones could support another round/area of post-frontal
convection between 12 to 16z.

Additionally, a shortwave trough pivoting SEwd through the base of
the long wave trough will lead to the development of a secondary
cold front Monday afternoon that will move south across the area
during the evening. Probabilistic guidance indicates non-zero
chances for some isolated showers and with this feature. Otherwise,
it should be drying out by the afternoon and not as hot. Highs
ranging from lower 80s north to mid/upper 80s south.

The secondary frontal passage Monday evening will usher in even
cooler and less humid into the area as continental surface high
builds in from the northwest. Lows ranging from mid/upper 50s north
to 60-65 elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

The extended starts off quiet and comfortable with slightly below
normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s Tuesday. Dewpoints in the
50s to low 60s will make outside feel comfy in the mornings but
still tolerable in the afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. As an upper
level ridge moves across the OH valley and over the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early to mid week dry weather is expected across our
area Tuesday through at least Friday morning. By late week an
abundance of moisture will move in from the Gulf of Mexico/Florida
resulting in some chance of showers and storms in the afternoon each
day Fri-Sun. For now have diurnal afternoon PoPs focused over the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain regions but can expect PoPs to expand
west with time and more consistent model guidance. Highs
temperatures will remain above average and gradually increase each
day. Thursday through the weekend temps will range from low 90s NW
to mid 90s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 710 PM Sunday...

With a surface front pushing SSE through the area through tonight,
the primary aviation concern will be the scattered showers and
storms that will cross central NC over the next several hours,
tracking toward the east-southeast and expected to pass near all TAF
sites between issuance time and 05z (although a few showers may
linger near FAY until 07z). Brief MVFR-IFR conditions and
gusty/erratic winds are expected in and near these showers/storms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will dominate outside of storms, and from
late tonight through Mon, although an isolated shower can`t be ruled
out very late Mon as a second front approaches the area. Surface
winds will remain gusty into tonight, from the WSW or W shifting to
NW after frontal passage.

Looking beyond 00z Tue, with surface high pressure extending over
the area, VFR conditions are likely to persist through the remainder
of the week. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield