312
FXUS62 KRAH 091810
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
210 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move offshore today. An upper level
disturbance and approaching cold front will cross the region late
today and tonight. Weak high pressure will build in from the north
early to mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Sunday...

...Marginal Risk of severe storms across southern NC...

Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

The 12Z surface analysis shows a sharp dewpoint gradient from the
Piedmont to the Coastal Plain, with mid to upper 60s dewpoints over
the Coastal Plain. Winds were generally swly at 5-10 kts. PWATs were
1.0 to 1.2 inches across central NC. The upper air analyses shows
the mid/upper low over SW Quebec, with the H25 jetlet centered over
southern Lake Michigan. There has been an increase in moisture in
the low levels, with dewpoint depressions around 5 degrees or less
noted at H7 and H85.

Model guidance suggests we could mix some lower dewpoints down
through early this afternoon, possibly down to the mid 50s in the
east, but may remain around 60 degrees in the west. Temperatures are
still expected to rise into the upper 80s NW to mid 90s SE this
afternoon. As the cold front moves into the area, expect some
advection of moisture from the WSW immediately ahead of it, with
PWATs rising to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches. MUCAPE appears somewhat
limited, a few hundred J/Kg or less, with effective shear around 20
kts, peaking just ahead of the front this aft/eve. Isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms are still expected ahead of the
front this afternoon into early tonight, with a strong/severe storm
or two still possible. -KC

Previous Discussion (as of 246 AM Sunday): An upper level
disturbance is expected to approach the region this afternoon. The
associated surface cold front over the OH Valley this morning, will
move across central NC later this afternoon and evening. Only
isolated damaging wind is expected with any of the stronger storms.
Expect generally isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon shifting to the S-SE this evening. Some CAMS have a few
more showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE this evening
associated with the cold front. As the front moves through the area,
shower chances will decrease rapidly from northwest to southeast
through the evening/overnight hours. Lows tonight will range from
the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in the south. -Badgett

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

...Lingering rain chances across southern NC through early Monday...


The effective, lead cold front is forecast to be well south of the
area by daybreak. However, weak perturbations embedded within the
plume of deeper moist and weak instability lingering across the far
southern zones could support another round/area of post-frontal
convection between 12 to 16z.

Additionally, a shortwave trough pivoting SEwd through the base of
the long wave trough will lead to the development of a secondary
cold front Monday afternoon that will move south across the area
during the evening. Probabilistic guidance indicates non-zero
chances for some isolated showers and with this feature. Otherwise,
it should be drying out by the afternoon and not as hot. Highs
ranging from lower 80s north to mid/upper 80s south.

The secondary frontal passage Monday evening will usher in even
cooler and less humid into the area as continental surface high
builds in from the northwest. Lows ranging from mid/upper 50s north
to 60-65 elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

The extended starts off quiet and comfortable with slightly below
normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s Tuesday. Dewpoints in the
50s to low 60s will make outside feel comfy in the mornings but
still tolerable in the afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. As an upper
level ridge moves across the OH valley and over the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early to mid week dry weather is expected across our
area Tuesday through at least Friday morning. By late week an
abundance of moisture will move in from the Gulf of Mexico/Florida
resulting in some chance of showers and storms in the afternoon each
day Fri-Sun. For now have diurnal afternoon PoPs focused over the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain regions but can expect PoPs to expand
west with time and more consistent model guidance. Highs
temperatures will remain above average and gradually increase each
day. Thursday through the weekend temps will range from low 90s NW
to mid 90s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

A surface cold front will move through the area this evening.
Meanwhile, a series of shortwave disturbances will traverse the
region through Monday. One, possibly two rounds of scattered showers
and storms are possible through the taf period ending at 18z Monday.
The first round will be from late this afternoon and into the late
evening and overnight hours, with all TAF sites potentially
impacted. A possible second round of convection is possible between
10-16z Monday, mainly across southern NC, INVOF KFAY. Otherwise,
outside of convection it should remain VFR will winds becoming NWLY
later this evening and overnight.

Looking beyond 18z Mon, VFR conditions are likely to hold at all
sites through late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...KC/Badgett
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL