800
FXUS62 KRAH 090616
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
216 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move offshore today. An upper level
disturbance and approaching cold front will cross the region late
today and tonight. Weak high pressure will build in from the north
early to mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 854 PM Saturday...

Negligible changes were made this evening as the inherited forecast
is on track.

High clouds from upstream convection earlier today continue to advect
east across the Piedmont this evening. Expect periods of cloudiness
to continue overnight with warm overnight lows in the mid to upper
60s. Residual dry air and lingering sfc high pressure will promote
dry conditions overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 209 PM Saturday...

...Marginal Risk of severe storms across central/southern NC on
Sunday...

A slow moving upper low over the Great Lakes will move into eastern
Canada during the day Sunday. A shortwave will round the base of the
trough, cross the mountains, and arrive in central NC some time
mid/late afternoon on Sunday. Ahead of the attendant surface cold
front, temps will rise well into the low to mid 90s but more
noticeably, moisture will return to the area as the aforementioned
surface ridge shifts offshore and return flow sets up. PW`s will
climb from around 1.0 inches today to nearly 1.75+ inches tomorrow
afternoon. While there will be some remnant cloud cover across the
area tomorrow from upstream convection, it still appears that there
will be sufficient time and breaks in the clouds to support MLCAPEs
in the 500-1000 J/KG range immediately ahead of the surface front as
it moves through the area. Deep layer shear isn`t the most
impressive but 0-6km values should reach 30-40 kt so there should be
some amount of organization to whatever storms form along and ahead
of the front. Primary threat with any storms that develop tomorrow
will be in the form of damaging winds.

As the front moves through the area, precip chances should taper off
from northwest to southeast through the evening/overnight hours,
eventually drying out completely by daybreak. Lows tomorrow night
will range from the low 60s in the north to the upper 60s in the
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 216 AM Sunday...

The extended will start off rather quiet and comfortable with near
to slightly below normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s Tue and
mid/upper 80s Wed. Humidity levels will also be low with dewpoints
during the day mixing out into the 40s and 50s. At mid-levels, this
period will feature troughing extending into the area from the NE US
and Mid-Atlantic Tue, that will transition to weak ridging Wed. High
pressure over the OH valley will settle into the region before
moving offshore with return flow later on Wed. While we are dry this
period, we cannot rule out a stray chance of a shower over our far
eastern zones with the departing trough and coastal low near the
coast Tue morning.

A return to hot and humid conditions and a return to potential
diurnal showers and storms is the main story in the Thu-Sat period.
The pattern in the guidance indicates quasi-zonal flow to weak
ridging to start. There is still some question as to what influence,
if any, could come from a developing system over the east and NE
Gulf Thu-Sat. A look at the ensemble guidance indicates the
uncertainty lies in how the system interacts with the mid to upper-
level flow over the Great Lakes to OH Valley. Some members have the
northern stream trough displaced further north and ridging off the
coast, allowing the Gulf system to advect higher moisture/PW`s into
the SE US for better chances of diurnal showers or storms. Another
ensemble camp shows the northern stream trough further south,
keeping the deeper moisture shunted to our south over FL and a
possible cold front late Fri or Sat. For now, given the uncertainty,
have low chances of showers/storms, and mainly for Fri and Sat,
where the synoptic pattern would possibly be more favorable. Highs
should hover in the low to perhaps mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 142 AM Sunday...

High confidence in generally VFR conditions today and tonight.
However, an isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon or
evening (SE) with brief MVFR to IFR conditions. This chance is less
than 20 percent for any TAF site between 18z and 03z today/this
evening. Winds will be fairly light but frequent gusts around 20 kts
are likely today 15z-22z, and stronger gusts are possible in and
near any storms late Sun.

Looking beyond 06z Mon, VFR conditions are likely to hold at all
sites through Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Badgett