Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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215 FXUS62 KRAH 080111 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 910 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will settle over the region through Saturday, then drift offshore and weaken early Sunday. A passing disturbance and approaching cold front will bring unsettled weather Sunday evening and night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 910 PM Friday... Evening observed data, including satellite imagery and upper air analyses, confirm that the current forecast is on track, with only small tweaks needed. GOES layer WV imagery shows well the deeply dry air over and just W and NW of NC, confirmed by 00z proximity and upstream sounding depicting well below normal PWs. These soundings also show a pronounced warm/stable layer from 750-500 mb over the region with fairly high dewpoint depressions through the column, further reinforcing the forecast of clear skies. With a very light primarily northwesterly wind tonight, expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, generally near to a few degrees below normal. -GIH Earlier discussion from 145 PM: In the wake of the exiting front, weak high pressure will build into the southern Appalachians through early Saturday. Good radiational cooling underneath clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass will yield a wide range of temperatures overnight ranging from mid 50s in the cooler locations to lower/mid 60s in sheltered areas. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM Friday... Underneath broad troughiness aloft, weak sfc high pressure extending across the area early in the day will give way to the development of a pre-frontal sfc trough over the NC Piedmont by the afternoon and evening. Mostly sunny skies will prevail through the afternoon with temps and humidity levels not that dissimilar to today; highs 85 to 90 with BL dewpoints in the 50s making it feel 3-4 degrees cooler. Decaying remnants of a convectively enhanced disturbance will move into the area during the evening5 However, given the dry stable airmass in place, conditions will remain dry with only an increase in cloud cover expected. Lows in the lower to mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible in the cooler locations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 PM Friday... A cold front will push through the region late Sunday night into early Monday morning. While most of Sunday is expected to be dry, warm southwest flow with increasing CAPE values in the afternoon could increase chances of showers and storms just ahead of the front. Best chance for precipitation Sunday afternoon will be in the NW Piedmont region. As the front moves across the region overnight a few scattered showers and storms can be ruled out thus kept 20-30% PoPs in the forecast. Highs across the region are expected to be above average with temps ranging from upper 80s in the NW to low/mid 90s elsewhere. Monday onward becomes a little less certain as long range model guidance begins to have inconsistencies with timing and coverage as the next round of disturbances move across the region. Monday and Tuesday should be mostly dry as high pressure begins to build in from the NW but cant rule out some afternoon isolated storms especially across the south. Highs will be near normal with temps ranging from the low 80s north to mid/upper 80s south. By Wednesday, a disturbance begins to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida, but timing and direction of where the disturbance moves varies between models. Kept PoPs low for mid to late week with the best chance in the afternoon in the southeast with high temperatures near to slightly above average in the mid 80s to upper 80s Wed/Thurs and around 90 degrees most places by Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 740 PM Friday... 24-hour TAF period: Dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through the TAF period. Skies will be clear until tomorrow afternoon when scattered mid and high clouds begin to move in from the west. Light winds (7 kts or less) will become NW this evening into tonight, shifting to WSW by tomorrow afternoon. Outlook: A moisture starved cold front and upper disturbance could bring some isolated to widely scattered showers or storms Sunday afternoon into early Monday. NWP model guidance is trending towards mostly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, with predominately VFR conditions. However, isolated showers and storms still can`t be totally ruled out, as confidence in details is low. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Danco/CBL