384
FXUS61 KRLX 251812
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
212 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend in response to a
cold front. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy
downpours will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon
   and progged to continue until this evening.

 * Areas of locally dense fog possible for Sunday morning in
   response to excess moisture and a nearby stalled front.

 * Better potential for strong to severe thunderstorms arrives
   Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front.

Afternoon cumulus field is beginning to bubble at the time of
writing, as local inhibition is overpowered by daytime heating
and increasing moisture. Satellite trends depict main focus for
activity in our forecast area runs from southeast Ohio and down
into the West Virginia mountains. Forecast soundings depict
southwesterly mid-level steering flow, so anything that forms
across the area this afternoon will follow a northeasterly path
up into the northern and eastern WV panhandles. In the case of
better organization within our convective field today, isolated
instances of damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible.
Mesoanalysis shows lackluster shear values over the Central
Appalachians this afternoon, but just enough CAPE of around 1500
J/kg to conspire with breaching convective temperatures to
produce create quick pulsating storms.

Will continue to also monitor for localized flash flooding that
could sprout in convection due to its slow moving nature
anticipated today. Also starting to see hints of backbuilding
along the spine of the Appalachian mountains, which could yield
localized flooding concerns as well.

Activity tapers down tremendously this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. With a plethora of moisture festering overhead
due to strengthening onshore flow set in place by an approaching
disturbance, a strong signal for fog was noted on forecast
soundings for Sunday morning. This will also be aided by an
approaching cold front that is progged to stall along the
Middle Ohio Valley overnight. Some spots could observe locally
dense fog before finally eroding after daybreak.

Aforementioned cold front encroaches on the region for the end
of the weekend and provokes another round of afternoon and
evening convection for Sunday. This may yield scattered to
possibly numerous severe storms around the Tri-State area, and
lessening in coverage as activity tracks into the central
lowlands and eventually the mountains near the break point of
the near and short term forecast periods. Some uncertainty still
exists for longevity and intensity of storms as they reach the
Ohio River Valley late Sunday afternoon/evening as the front
drifts southeastward. Some of these storms could outrun the
boundary and weaken as a result, but hi-res CAMs strongly
suggest a line of convection swinging into Ohio and Kentucky and
encroaching on our forecast area near the evening. Loss of
daytime heating as these storms arrive may also hinder the
severity coverage to more isolated instances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms remain likely Sunday night and into Monday
morning with waves of shortwave energy approaching from the west.
The strength and timing of any thunderstorms overnight still remains
questionable. Most models show storms weakening as they approach
West Virginia from the west, likely due to a lack of instability.
Some thunderstorms may be capable of bringing damaging winds and
hail, particularly across northeast Kentucky and far southern Ohio,
where instability will be a little more favorable. Severe potential
is more questionable across West Virgina. Nonetheless, the
atmosphere will still have plenty of moisture with PWAT values
likely to be anywhere from 1.25-1.75 inches late Sunday night and
into Monday morning. Therefore, we are concerned about the threat of
flooding, especially in training showers/thunderstorms and locations
where the ground has been saturated from previous activity. The
Weather Prediction Center places much of the region in a slight risk
of excessive rainfall through 12Z Monday morning, which increases
our concern for potential high water issues.

A cold front will sweep through from the west Monday afternoon.
Ahead of the front will be scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Therefore, the potential for flooding will continue into Monday. The
Memorial Day holiday shouldn`t be a complete washout, but it will be
a good idea to keep an eye to the sky and stay up to date with the
latest forecast. Mid-level drier air will funnel in from the west
behind the cold front Monday evening, which should help curb the
flooding threat.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday as
an upper-level low spins over the Northeast. The flooding threat for
Tuesday and Wednesday looks low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers will remain in the forecast Wednesday, but drier weather
should build into the area from Thursday onward as high pressure
expands into the middle Ohio Valley. Temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be much cooler than what we have seen recently. Highs
will only be in the upper 60s in the mountains to the 70s in the
lowlands. Temperatures should gradually warm back into the 80s again
by next weekend as high pressure slides to the east and a southerly
flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Saturday...

Afternoon cumulus field has sprouted across parts of the
forecast area at the time of writing, with the bulk of radar
activity still outside of our airfields. Mid-level flow will
direct showers and storms that attempt to form today to the
northeast, so it will require development to the southwest of a
TAF site in order for rain and/or thunder to be observed. This
remains fairly driven by daytime heating today, so anything that
does form will quickly fade off after sunset. Will handle the
forecast with VCTS for now with note of potential future AMDs to
include tempo groups for brief vsby drops in the event a storm
moves overhead.

For tonight, there is a strong signal on forecast soundings for
fog development early Sunday morning. Light flow through the
profile, coupled with increasing low level moisture, will
generate widespread fog, locally dense in some spots, for the
early morning timeframe. Outside of lower confidence at BKW,
opted to carry IFR or worse at all other sites. Fog gradually
lifts and erodes after daybreak.

Another round of showers and storms will be present on Sunday as
an advancing cold front drifts closer to the area. There will be
a stronger emphasis on severe weather for the afternoon and
evening, so VCTS will be most likely included in future TAF
issuances to highlight this potential. Light winds prevail
through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of fog and its intensity may
vary for late tonight into Sunday morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through early next
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK