207
FXUS61 KRLX 281541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1141 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms through Wednesday. Drying out Thursday into
the weekend. Next chance for precipitation returns Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1140 AM Tuesday...

Series of shortwaves to affect the area. One this afternoon,
combined with peak heating, will generate showers and storms, mainly
across the north. This will be followed by another series of waves,
one Wednesday morning, followed by another later in the day.
Overall, convection should be scattered in nature, and severe
weather is not anticipated, with storms today not likely to get very
tall due to a mid level cap in place.

As with previous forecast thinking, fog tonight should be rather
limited, but can`t be completely ruled out, particularly in areas
that receive rain today. But overall thinking is any fog that forms
should not be particularly dense in nature with incoming wave.
Cooler Wednesday with increased cloud cover and shower activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Showers and storms expected at times through Wednesday, with
  dry conditions thereafter.
* Cool temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

Model consensus provides better confidence on precipitation reaching
the northern sections of the CWA early Wednesday morning, as an
upper level wave swings across the region through Wednesday evening.
Upper level forcing will combine with diurnal heating, and limited
moisture to trigger afternoon convection, more likely across the
northern sections. Limited moisture and instability will keep
convection weak. So, no strong to severe thunderstorms
expected. Any showers or storms will dissipate quickly around
sunset. Therefore, accepted general guidance with likely PoPs
across the north, ranging to slight chance across the southern
sections.

Drier air filters in Wednesday night and Thursday providing mostly
clear skies and fresher temperatures. Slightly below normal
highs expected Wednesday and Thursday with mid 70s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s higher elevations.

Relatively colder temperatures aloft and clear skies will allow for
temperatures to drop into the mid 30s across the higher elevations
of our northeast mountains. This may result in areas of frost Friday
morning in those places. Will continue to mention frost in HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 233 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* High pressure provides dry weather Friday and Saturday.
* Patchy frost possible Friday morning northeast mountains.
* Isolated showers/storms return Saturday night into Monday.
* Gradual warming trend late week into early next week.

Surface high pressure builds overhead Friday and Saturday, providing
plenty of sunshine, a gradual warm up and dry weather conditions.

In the absence of any large scale forcing mechanism, continued the
thinking of diurnally driven convection possible, accepting the
NBM suggestion with 30-40 percent PoPs across the region for
Saturday night into the beginning of next week.

Fridays`s highs will range from the mid to upper 70s lowlands, into
the upper 50s northeast mountains. Warming up on Saturday with
lowlands afternoon temperatures reaching the lower 80s. These warm
temperatures will persist through the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 610 AM Tuesday...

Valley fog will dissipate in the next hour or so, with VFR then
expected for much of the day. Ceilings may lower to low-end VFR
as a deck of SCT to BKN clouds develops this afternoon.
Occasional visibility restrictions could also occur within
showers and storms that are expected to sprout up this afternoon
and evening. Have included VCTS for most sites this afternoon.

Activity should taper off tonight, then precipitation chances return
and ceilings begin to lower towards MVFR near the end of the TAF
period as another disturbance approaches for Wednesday.

Westerly winds will strengthen during the day, with 15-25kt gusts
possible through the afternoon. Light west to southwest flow is
then expected overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/extent of showers and storms during
the day may vary from the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and storms on Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB