910
FXUS61 KRLX 271724
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
124 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated strong storms are possible through early this evening.
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon will see additional shower and
thunderstorm chances before drying out Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

A cold front evident in both satellite imagery and surface
observations draped from just west of CLE into southern Indiana will
slowly make its way toward the forecast area this afternoon into
this evening. The warm sector ahead of this feature is largely
capped near H750 with temperatures 7-9C at this level with surface
parcels struggling to warm enough to punch through given a heavy SCT
to BKN flat cumulus field.  There are a couple areas of better
insolation at this hour, one immediately ahead of a prefrontal
trough located 50-100 miles ahead of the aforementioned cold front,
and another situated between the prefrontal trough and cold front.
This may yield some better chances for cap violation and resultant
convection through this afternoon as these features translate east.
Guidance has been running a little high on dew points and perhaps a
tiny bit low on temperatures yielding less conditional instability
than previous progged, perhaps 500 to 700 J/kg MLCAPE with deep
layer shear around 30KTs and modest low level curvature in
hodographs yielding perhaps 90m2/s2 SRH. This will yield a
conditional risk for strong to severe storms ahead of the cold front
this afternoon into early this evening, mainly across the eastern
half of the forecast area. Damaging winds are the primary threat
expected, although couldn`t rule out a brief spin-up. Given the
aforementioned limiting factors for convective coverage, currently
thinking the threat will be rather limited.

Any convection wanes fairly quickly this evening with loss of
heating.

Weak dry advection and modest boundary layer flow should help limit
any fog formation overnight to the most protected valleys that saw
any heavier rain over the last couple days.

Another round of showers and storms are expected Tuesday with an
approaching shortwave as the primary focusing mechanism. May see
forcing arrive a little too early, late morning into very early
afternoon with the resultant uptick in cloud cover limiting surface
based destabilization and this would limit severe potential despite
deep layer shear increasing to around 40KTs. Will need to monitor
destabilization trends through the late morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Showers and storms expected at times through Wednesday.
* Temperatures turn cooler for the middle of the week.

Several shortwaves pivoting through an upper level trough are
expected to facilitate periods of showers and thunderstorms through
the middle of the week.

Precipitation chances seep into the CWA from the north as the first
shortwave brushes by on Tuesday. A lull in precipitation could then
be possible late Tuesday before the next wave crosses the area
Wednesday into Wednesday night. While precipitation chances are
expected to overspread the area during the day, the greatest
probability for showers and storms should reside across the northern
half of the area. Severe storms are not currently anticipated for
Tuesday or Wednesday.

High temperatures are expected to range from mid to upper 70s in the
lowlands and 60s to low 70s along the mountains on Tuesday.
Wednesday should be slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* High pressure begins to build into the area, resulting in
  quieter weather late this week.
* Gradual warming trend should take hold late week into the weekend.

Surface high pressure starts building into the region from the
northwest on Thursday and then strengthens its grip on Friday,
resulting in a quieter conclusion to the work week.

High pressure and the presence of an upper ridge should allow
benign weather to continue on Saturday. Confidence on the
forecast for the second half of the weekend remains low due to
model discrepancies. One solution shows a shortwave bringing
precipitation chances back into the area, while another
maintains drier conditions beneath upper ridging until Monday.
For the present, have used a model blend that reintroduces
slight chance to chance PoPs Saturday night into Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to start out slightly cooler than normal
on Thursday, then a warming trend takes hold and buoys temperatures
above normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

In the wake of morning convection, largely seeing surface parcels
capped around 6000 ft msl with a mainly flat cumulus field
developing across the region. With additional heating this
afternoon, should see some updrafts beginning to sneak through the
warm layer aloft with isolated showers and thunderstorms. The best
chances will be along a prefrontal trough currently just west of the
forecast area and associated cold front around 100SM farther back to
the west. Given expected very limited coverage, plan to address with
only VCSH and VCTS at some terminals with the 18Z TAF package.

Any convection settles down quickly this evening with the loss of
surface heating. Clearing skies overnight along with recent locally
heavy rainfall may be able to offset modest dry air advection and
modest boundary layer flow to yield some patchy fog that could
potentially affect the more prone terminals, mainly CRW and EKN.
Will code BR for these locations to reflect this potential.

Winds generally southwesterly 7-12KTs with some gusts up into the
upper teens/lower 20s through this afternoon, turning west-
northwesterly after trough/cold frontal passage this afternoon into
this evening. Winds taper off overnight turning back to the
southwest heading into daybreak. Some additional gusts into the
teens/low 20s will be possible Tuesday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated convective coverage this
afternoon could affect any terminal. Patchy valley fog possible
overnight tonight may be more dense than advertised.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JLB
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JP