760
FXUS61 KRLX 291257
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
857 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbance brings showers and storms today. High pressure
Thursday through Saturday. Disturbances bring showers and storms
late Saturday night into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 857 AM Wednesday...

This morning`s forecast remains on track, and no changes are
needed at this time.

As of 500 AM Wednesday...

Updated PoPs to reflect the faster eastward progression of
showers and storms this morning. No other significant forecast
changes have been made at this time.

As of 245 AM Wednesday...

Some early morning valley fog and stratus are currently present
mainly along and near the mountains while a line of showers and
storms invades from the west. This line will mainly traverse
the northern half of the CWA, while isolated showers move
through to the south this morning. Showers and storms are then
expected to become more widespread in the afternoon as a
shortwave trough continues to slowly migrate east overhead.

Precipitation coverage diminishes following the departure of
the shortwave tonight, then drier conditions are expected for
the remainder of the overnight period. Low stratus could linger
over the mountains through the night, while clearing to the
west should allow for the development of valley fog.

Temperatures are expected to remain a bit cooler than normal today,
with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s
to upper 60s along the mountains. Tonight will then be chilly, with
lows ranging from mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

For Thursday, surface high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes extends south into the OH valley to provide fresh north
northeast flow through Friday. Therefore, expect mostly clear
skies, and below normal temperatures through Friday night.

Thursday`s highs will generally be in the mid 70s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 50s northeast mountains under plenty of sunshine. Lows
will range from the mid 40s lowlands, into the upper 30s northeast
mountains. Confidence on having patchy frost over the higher elevations
of our northeast mountains by Friday morning runs low.

Similar tranquil day expected Friday, perhaps a bit warmer afternoon
but still below normal for this time of the year. Highs in the mid
to upper 70s lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s across
the northeast mountains. Lows will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

Upper level ridge takes control, providing dry weather conditions
for Saturday morning. However, the boundary layer flow veers from
the southwest Saturday and Sunday. Warm moist advection begins
Saturday as BL southwesterly flow increases. Clouds will invade the
area as moisture saturates the atmosphere from top to bottom
Saturday afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching upper level
wave. This wave crosses the area Saturday evening through Sunday.
This feature will provide enough upper level ascent to sustain
showers and thunderstorms through the period.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in zonal flow aloft
without any significant shortwave noticed. However, lingering
moisture leaves PWATs around 1.4 inches, with limited instability
under 1,000 J/kg, but strong deep layered shear and SRH. Therefore,
cannot ruled out at least gusty showers and widespread precipitation
Monday into Tuesday.

Near normal warm temperatures expected Saturday through Tuesday,
reaching the low to mid 80s across the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 615 AM Wednesday...

A mix of flight conditions are present this morning due to
showers, storms, fog and some low stratus. Fog/low stratus will
erode in the next couple of hours, while showers and storms
continue to shift east. Sub-VFR conditions should improve for
the morning, then showers and storms are expected to spread
across the area this afternoon as a disturbance slowly moves
overhead. Brief MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities are
possible in any heavier showers or storms. Precipitation
should diminish after 00Z, then IFR or worse conditions are
likely to develop as fog and low stratus form overnight into
early Thursday morning.

Westerly winds are expected to gust to around 15-20kts at times
this afternoon, then winds will weaken and turn northwesterly
overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers/storms today may vary
from the forecast. Timing and extent of fog and low stratus
tonight may also vary.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in early morning fog/stratus on Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB/JMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB