671
FXUS61 KRLX 290903
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
503 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbance brings showers and storms today. High pressure
Thursday through Saturday. Disturbances bring showers and storms
late Saturday night into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 500 AM Wednesday...

Updated PoPs to reflect the faster eastward progression of
showers and storms this morning. No other significant forecast
changes have been made at this time.

As of 245 AM Wednesday...

Some early morning valley fog and stratus are currently present
mainly along and near the mountains while a line of showers and
storms invades from the west. This line will mainly traverse
the northern half of the CWA, while isolated showers move
through to the south this morning. Showers and storms are then
expected to become more widespread in the afternoon as a
shortwave trough continues to slowly migrate east overhead.

Precipitation coverage diminishes following the departure of
the shortwave tonight, then drier conditions are expected for
the remainder of the overnight period. Low stratus could linger
over the mountains through the night, while clearing to the
west should allow for the development of valley fog.

Temperatures are expected to remain a bit cooler than normal today,
with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s
to upper 60s along the mountains. Tonight will then be chilly, with
lows ranging from mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

For Thursday, surface high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes extends south into the OH valley to provide fresh north
northeast flow through Friday. Therefore, expect mostly clear
skies, and below normal temperatures through Friday night.

Thursday`s highs will generally be in the mid 70s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 50s northeast mountains under plenty of sunshine. Lows
will range from the mid 40s lowlands, into the upper 30s northeast
mountains. Confidence on having patchy frost over the higher elevations
of our northeast mountains by Friday morning runs low.

Similar tranquil day expected Friday, perhaps a bit warmer afternoon
but still below normal for this time of the year. Highs in the mid
to upper 70s lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s across
the northeast mountains. Lows will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

Upper level ridge takes control, providing dry weather conditions
for Saturday morning. However, the boundary layer flow veers from
the southwest Saturday and Sunday. Warm moist advection begins
Saturday as BL southwesterly flow increases. Clouds will invade the
area as moisture saturates the atmosphere from top to bottom
Saturday afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching upper level
wave. This wave crosses the area Saturday evening through Sunday.
This feature will provide enough upper level ascent to sustain
showers and thunderstorms through the period.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in zonal flow aloft
without any significant shortwave noticed. However, lingering
moisture leaves PWATs around 1.4 inches, with limited instability
under 1,000 J/kg, but strong deep layered shear and SRH. Therefore,
cannot ruled out at least gusty showers and widespread precipitation
Monday into Tuesday.

Near normal warm temperatures expected Saturday through Tuesday,
reaching the low to mid 80s across the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

Mainly VFR is currently present, though valley fog and low
stratus have developed primarily across the eastern half of the
area. This fog/stratus may bring some IFR/LIFR restrictions
early this morning.

A line of showers and storms approaching from the west will
continue into the area this morning, then showers and storms are
expected to become more widespread for the afternoon as a
disturbance slowly moves overhead. Periodic MVFR ceilings and
MVFR/IFR visibilities may occur within any heavier showers or
storms today. Precipitation is expected to taper off after 00Z
as the disturbance departs, though MVFR or worse conditions will
again be possible in fog and low stratus anticipated to form
late in the period.

Light winds may pick up as storms move through this morning.
Flow becomes westerly during the day, with 15-20kt gusts
possible through the afternoon. Winds lessen overnight and take
on a northwesterly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration and extent of fog/stratus may
vary from the TAFs. Timing of sub-VFR conditions in showers and
storms today may also vary. Fog may develop again late in the
TAF period.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 05/29/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in the mountains in fog and stratus Thursday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB