273
FXUS61 KRLX 281013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
613 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today and Wednesday will bring some additional shower/storm
activity, before drying out Thursday into the weekend. Next
chance for precipitation returns Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 530 AM Tuesday...

Valley fog has materialized to the south and east this morning,
though extent has been somewhat limited by persistent light
winds and clouds over the mountains. Fog is expected to
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

As of 220 AM Tuesday...

A shortwave is projected to glide past the area, bringing
potential for showers and a few storms across the northern half
of the CWA during the day. While the wave departs to the
northeast this afternoon, enough instability and shear may be
present to support some additional convection during the
late afternoon and evening. A lull in activity should occur
after sundown, then the next shortwave trough approaches from
the northwest and reintroduces precipitation chances overnight.

High temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than the past
couple of days, topping out in the 70s for the lowlands and 60s
to low 70s along the mountains. Tonight will be seasonable, with
lows in the low to mid 50s in the lowlands and upper 40s to low
50s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Showers and storms expected at times through Wednesday, with
  dry conditions thereafter.
* Cool temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

Model consensus provides better confidence on precipitation reaching
the northern sections of the CWA early Wednesday morning, as an
upper level wave swings across the region through Wednesday evening.
Upper level forcing will combine with diurnal heating, and limited
moisture to trigger afternoon convection, more likely across the
northern sections. Limited moisture and instability will keep
convection weak. So, no strong to severe thunderstorms
expected. Any showers or storms will dissipate quickly around
sunset. Therefore, accepted general guidance with likely PoPs
across the north, ranging to slight chance across the southern
sections.

Drier air filters in Wednesday night and Thursday providing mostly
clear skies and fresher temperatures. Slightly below normal
highs expected Wednesday and Thursday with mid 70s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s higher elevations.

Relatively colder temperatures aloft and clear skies will allow for
temperatures to drop into the mid 30s across the higher elevations
of our northeast mountains. This may result in areas of frost Friday
morning in those places. Will continue to mention frost in HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 233 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* High pressure provides dry weather Friday and Saturday.
* Patchy frost possible Friday morning northeast mountains.
* Isolated showers/storms return Saturday night into Monday.
* Gradual warming trend late week into early next week.

Surface high pressure builds overhead Friday and Saturday, providing
plenty of sunshine, a gradual warm up and dry weather conditions.

In the absence of any large scale forcing mechanism, continued the
thinking of diurnally driven convection possible, accepting the
NBM suggestion with 30-40 percent PoPs across the region for
Saturday night into the beginning of next week.

Fridays`s highs will range from the mid to upper 70s lowlands, into
the upper 50s northeast mountains. Warming up on Saturday with
lowlands afternoon temperatures reaching the lower 80s. These warm
temperatures will persist through the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 610 AM Tuesday...

Valley fog will dissipate in the next hour or so, with VFR then
expected for much of the day. Ceilings may lower to low-end VFR
as a deck of SCT to BKN clouds develops this afternoon.
Occasional visibility restrictions could also occur within
showers and storms that are expected to sprout up this afternoon
and evening. Have included VCTS for most sites this afternoon.

Activity should taper off tonight, then precipitation chances return
and ceilings begin to lower towards MVFR near the end of the TAF
period as another disturbance approaches for Wednesday.

Westerly winds will strengthen during the day, with 15-25kt gusts
possible through the afternoon. Light west to southwest flow is
then expected overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/extent of showers and storms during
the day may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               TUE 05/28/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and storms on Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB