647
FXUS61 KRLX 290647
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
247 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbance brings showers and storms today. High
pressure Thursday into the weekend. Disturbances bring showers
and storms late Saturday night into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...

Some early morning valley fog and stratus are currently present
mainly along and near the mountains while a line of showers and
storms invades from the west. This line will mainly traverse
the northern half of the CWA, while isolated showers move
through to the south this morning. Showers and storms are then
expected to become more widespread in the afternoon as a
shortwave trough continues to slowly migrate east overhead.

Precipitation coverage diminishes following the departure of
the shortwave tonight, then drier conditions are expected for
the remainder of the overnight period. Low stratus could linger
over the mountains through the night, while clearing to the
west should allow for the development of valley fog.

Temperatures are expected to remain a bit cooler than normal today,
with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s
to upper 60s along the mountains. Tonight will then be chilly, with
lows ranging from mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Any lingering showers over the northeast mountains dissipate through
Wednesday night with dry conditions expected through Friday night.
Troughing over the east coast will yield temperatures around 5
degrees below normal for this time of the year with a rather dry
airmass making it feel quite pleasant during the afternoons.
Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across
the lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher
elevations. This could yield some patchy frost across the better
protected mountain valleys Friday morning, but otherwise minimal
weather concerns are expected. Ridging translating east into the
Middle Ohio Valley during the day Friday will signal a return to
warmer and more humid conditions for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as
southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to
around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging
from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio
Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing
for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will
provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid-
level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional
instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday
yielding some efficient rain makers.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime
as humidity lingers. This should yield mainly diurnally driven
convection with slow moving convective cores. Will have to see what
the soils look like when we get there after rain from Saturday night
into Sunday, but some localized hydro issues would appear to be
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

Mainly VFR is currently present, though valley fog and low
stratus have developed primarily across the eastern half of the
area. This fog/stratus may bring some IFR/LIFR restrictions
early this morning.

A line of showers and storms approaching from the west will
continue into the area this morning, then showers and storms are
expected to become more widespread for the afternoon as a
disturbance slowly moves overhead. Periodic MVFR ceilings and
MVFR/IFR visibilities may occur within any heavier showers or
storms today. Precipitation is expected to taper off after 00Z
as the disturbance departs, though MVFR or worse conditions will
again be possible in fog and low stratus anticipated to form
late in the period.

Light winds may pick up as storms move through this morning.
Flow becomes westerly during the day, with 15-20kt gusts
possible through the afternoon. Winds lessen overnight and take
on a northwesterly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration and extent of fog/stratus may
vary from the TAFs. Timing of sub-VFR conditions in showers and
storms today may also vary. Fog may develop again late in the
TAF period.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 05/29/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in the mountains in fog and stratus Thursday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JLB