409
FXUS61 KRLX 082247
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
647 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps dry weather this evening. There is a
chance of showers or thunderstorms with a cold front Sunday.
Mainly dry through the work week with building heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

Seeing mid to high level clouds move through the forecast area
this afternoon ahead of a looming disturbance to our west. High
pressure to the south will keep the area dry today with warm and
comfortable temperatures for most locations. High temperatures
will be in the upper 70s and low 80s across the lowlands; 60s
and 70s in the mountains. Winds could be breezy at times this
afternoon, particularly across the mountains.

A cold front will slowly move through the region Sunday after
arriving in the early morning hours. Models continue to suggest
a drier passage with this front, and blended guidance only keeps
chances for showers, and maybe a thunderstorm or two, across
the mountains and foothills starting early Sunday morning into
the afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday look to be in the same
ball park as today, maybe 1-3 degrees cooler depending on cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 203 PM Saturday...

A shortwave moving across the northeast may provide some light/brief
shower activity mainly across the north and east on Monday, but
overall drier and cooler weather will take hold with surface high
pressure building in, and northwesterly flow aloft taking hold.
Continued cool and dry on Tuesday as northerly flow remains in
place.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid to
late week as upper ridge takes hold across the area. Ridge will
break down towards the end of the period, with unsettled weather
returning once again as a cold front approaches the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions can be expected this evening.

A cold front will push through late tonight and Sunday. Expect
some MVFR clouds near the cold front. Some restrictions are
possible in showers as well. Thunderstorms can not be ruled out
in the afternoon in the mountains and southern West Virginia.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms with the cold front Sunday could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY