Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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760 FXUS61 KRLX 291257 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 857 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper disturbance brings showers and storms today. High pressure Thursday through Saturday. Disturbances bring showers and storms late Saturday night into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 857 AM Wednesday... This morning`s forecast remains on track, and no changes are needed at this time. As of 500 AM Wednesday... Updated PoPs to reflect the faster eastward progression of showers and storms this morning. No other significant forecast changes have been made at this time. As of 245 AM Wednesday... Some early morning valley fog and stratus are currently present mainly along and near the mountains while a line of showers and storms invades from the west. This line will mainly traverse the northern half of the CWA, while isolated showers move through to the south this morning. Showers and storms are then expected to become more widespread in the afternoon as a shortwave trough continues to slowly migrate east overhead. Precipitation coverage diminishes following the departure of the shortwave tonight, then drier conditions are expected for the remainder of the overnight period. Low stratus could linger over the mountains through the night, while clearing to the west should allow for the development of valley fog. Temperatures are expected to remain a bit cooler than normal today, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s along the mountains. Tonight will then be chilly, with lows ranging from mid 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Wednesday... For Thursday, surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends south into the OH valley to provide fresh north northeast flow through Friday. Therefore, expect mostly clear skies, and below normal temperatures through Friday night. Thursday`s highs will generally be in the mid 70s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains under plenty of sunshine. Lows will range from the mid 40s lowlands, into the upper 30s northeast mountains. Confidence on having patchy frost over the higher elevations of our northeast mountains by Friday morning runs low. Similar tranquil day expected Friday, perhaps a bit warmer afternoon but still below normal for this time of the year. Highs in the mid to upper 70s lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s across the northeast mountains. Lows will generally be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 AM Wednesday... Upper level ridge takes control, providing dry weather conditions for Saturday morning. However, the boundary layer flow veers from the southwest Saturday and Sunday. Warm moist advection begins Saturday as BL southwesterly flow increases. Clouds will invade the area as moisture saturates the atmosphere from top to bottom Saturday afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching upper level wave. This wave crosses the area Saturday evening through Sunday. This feature will provide enough upper level ascent to sustain showers and thunderstorms through the period. Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in zonal flow aloft without any significant shortwave noticed. However, lingering moisture leaves PWATs around 1.4 inches, with limited instability under 1,000 J/kg, but strong deep layered shear and SRH. Therefore, cannot ruled out at least gusty showers and widespread precipitation Monday into Tuesday. Near normal warm temperatures expected Saturday through Tuesday, reaching the low to mid 80s across the lowlands. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 615 AM Wednesday... A mix of flight conditions are present this morning due to showers, storms, fog and some low stratus. Fog/low stratus will erode in the next couple of hours, while showers and storms continue to shift east. Sub-VFR conditions should improve for the morning, then showers and storms are expected to spread across the area this afternoon as a disturbance slowly moves overhead. Brief MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible in any heavier showers or storms. Precipitation should diminish after 00Z, then IFR or worse conditions are likely to develop as fog and low stratus form overnight into early Thursday morning. Westerly winds are expected to gust to around 15-20kts at times this afternoon, then winds will weaken and turn northwesterly overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers/storms today may vary from the forecast. Timing and extent of fog and low stratus tonight may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in early morning fog/stratus on Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB/JMC SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JLB