699
FXUS61 KRLX 301711
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
111 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms late Saturday night into
next week. Above normal temperatures in store next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 911 AM Thursday...

No changes to the forecast are needed at this time. Everything
remains on track.

As of 635 AM Thursday...

Have made a few changes to temperatures and dewpoints based on
current observations. Otherwise, the near term forecast is
generally on track this morning.

As of 215 AM Thursday...

Isolated showers, mainly lingering over the northeast mountains,
should fade early this morning. Valley fog has started to
develop in the lowlands and should expend in coverage before
dawn, while stratus persists along the mountains. Both fog and
stratus are then expected to erode after sunrise.

While an upper trough remains stationed overhead today, dry air will
be introduced to the lower levels as high pressure expands into the
Middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. The passage of another
shortwave could bring a few clouds during the latter half of the
day, though high pressure is expected to maintain control at the
surface and supply dry, tranquil conditions into the night.

Temperatures should remain on the cooler side of normal, with
daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the lowlands and
mid 50s to upper 60s in the mountains. Lows for tonight are expected
to turn chilly and are likely to range from low to mid 40s in the
lowlands to mid 30s to low 40s along the mountains. Patchy frost
could even form across portions of the northeast mountains early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 AM Thursday...

Dry and quiet conditions expected Friday and Saturday, courtesy of a
broad surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes,
south into the OH Valley and West Virginia. Temperatures will feel 5
degrees cooler than normal on Friday and Friday night under weak
northerly flow. However, boundary layer flow veers from the
southwest by Saturday morning, ahead of an approaching upper level
trough. This will provide a warming trend into the weekend. A clean
transient upper level ridge will support stable conditions Saturday.
Therefore, expect a warm up Saturday afternoon under sunny skies
with highs reaching the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into
the upper 60s higher elevations.

Boundary layer southwest flow increases Saturday night and Sunday,
bringing descent moist and warm advection to the area, while the
upper ridge moves east, allowing a sharp trough to cross the area
during the same time. The upper level support and available moisture
could allow for chances of showers Saturday night, increasing in
coverage and intensity Sunday.  Associated upper level forcing will
combine with PWATs increasing to 1.5 inches to sustain showers and
few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

Some guidance suggests a shortwave within the upper trough will push
a cold front Sunday, pushing convection east of the mountains by
Sunday night. However, other guidance points at the stalling cold
front north of the area by Monday. Accepted NBM temperatures with a
warming trend, Sunday to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...

Models diverge a bit going into the long-term as a strong high
pressure system moves off the coast of the Carolinas to start
the new work week. A back door front looks to set up across
northern WV going into Monday morning before it lifts up north
through the day. As such, precipitation chances look to recede
during the day, minus chances for showers and storms along the
mountains.

A warming trend with above average temperatures looks fairly likely
next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look to showcase temperatures
in the upper 80s for typical warm spots across the lowlands.
Chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain each
afternoon due to the above normal temperatures, as well as a
few shortwaves that will move through the ridge pattern. A cold
front approaches Thursday and temperatures look to decrease a
few degrees after its passage.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...

Stratus and valley fog will erode this morning, allowing VFR
conditions to return across the area. High pressure building in from
the north will then maintain VFR conditions for the rest of the day.
Around 5-12kt northwesterly winds are expected during the day, with
occasional gusts into the 15-20kt range possible along the
mountains this afternoon.

Tonight, calm to light winds and clear skies could facilitate the
development of river valley fog. While VFR should persist
outside of fog, IFR or worse conditions will be possible
wherever fog does develop.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement this morning may vary
from the forecast. Extent and intensity of fog tonight may also
vary.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog early Friday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB/LTC
NEAR TERM...JLB/JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JLB