Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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974 FXUS61 KRLX 261634 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1234 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend in response to a cold front. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours will be possible. Remaining unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 927 AM Sunday... Refreshed skies/temps/dew points this morning to continue reflecting current observations. Sunny skies this morning will quickly be veiled by westward approaching cirrus over the next few hours, followed by lowering ceilings as afternoon convection commences. Mesoanalysis depicts surface based convective inhibition still firmly in place this morning, but as temperatures continue to rise into the mid to upper 70s by late morning, we`ll see instability rise for peaking heating hours later this afternoon. With that, the growing potential for showers and storms. Activity currently out west in Illinois down into western Kentucky will bear close monitoring today as this will be the first of several rounds of convection that is slated to encroach on the central Appalachians today into Monday. How this line of convection will behave for our area will be dictated by how favorable the environment will be for its arrival and sustainability. As of 248 AM Sunday... Key Points: * Hot and humid today. * Enhanced risk for severe storms NE Kentucky through tonight. * Slight risk for severe storms rest of the area, except NE mountains through tonight. * Slight risk for excessive rainfall over the southern two thirds of the area through tonight. Widespread river valley dense fog will gradually dissipate early this morning. Frontal boundary, oriented west to east across our north, lifts north as a warm front this morning, leaving the area under a warm sector of an approaching cold front. Winds increase from the southwest, bringing strong moisture advection with boundary layer theta-e values exceeding 340K by this afternoon. A mid level shortwave crosses the area this afternoon, providing upper forcing to enhance convection. Local bufkit soundings show a tall/skinny CAPE signature with dry air at the mid levels by this afternoon. Guidance suggests deep layered shear will limited over most parts of the area, except far west across NE KY where values of 50 to 60 knots are anticipated. These ingredients will allow for strong to severe updrafts /downdrafts, the strongest; farther west where the best dynamics will be present. With PWATs increasing from 1.3 to 1.7 inches by this evening, very heavy downpours are likely, some capable to produce flash flooding. Hi-res CAMs suggest a strong line of convection arriving to the Tri-state area (OH/KY/WV) around 3 PM spreading east as some elements weaken. A second batch of convection is forecasted right behind it, but it seems to weaken as well as the reach NE KY and portions of the Mid Ohio valley. However, strong to severe storms may be able to survive and spread east further into WV with the passing of another upper level shortwave around midnight as convective parameters become more active, with deep layered shear increasing to 55 knots, PWATs around 1.7 inches and CAPE about 1200 J/Kg. SPC maintains an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms over NE KY, a slight risk roughly across the rest of the area, except for the northern mountains through tonight. Therefore, expecting scattered to possibly numerous severe storms around the Tri- State area this afternoon and evening, with damaging gusty wind, large hail, and the possibility of tornadoes being the main threats. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall across the southern two thirds of the area, and a marginal risk across the northern third. This translates to the possibility of very heavy rain and associated flash flooding. Despite clouds and convection expected, highs will manage to reach the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s across the higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Lows tonight will generally be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1137 AM Sunday... Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday and Wednesday with shortwave energy flowing around the base of a 500-mb trough. Areas with the best chance at seeing showers will be in northern parts of the area and in the mountains. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. For both Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will be a bit lower than recent days with highs only in the 70s in the lowlands and the upper 60s to 70s in the mountains. Wednesday night might even feel chilly to some with temperatures dropping into the 40s and lower 50s for lows. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1137 AM Sunday... The long term forecast period looks largely dry with high pressure building into the region from the west. Temperatures will remain comfortably cool Thursday and Friday with highs in the 70s for most. The summer-like warmth will return next weekend as high pressure slides east and southerly flow returns. There is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms Saturday with 500-mb shortwave energy approaching from the west, but confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1234 PM Sunday... Approaching line of showers and thunderstorms will reach our western terminals around or just shortly after the 18Z TAF issuance, then follow a northeasterly trajectory through the forecast area. This trend continues into tonight, with all airfields having a high potential to see a strong to possibly severe thunderstorm pass overhead or near the site. Any storm that does become severe could yield damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a quick spin up tornado. A secondary line of convection scrapes the area late tonight into the overnight hours. Additional lightning is possible overnight, with focus gradually becoming more on the heavy downpours associated with this renewed precipitation. Ceilings will also lower in the process for the Ohio River Valley and up the mountains for Monday morning. While gradually improving on Monday along the higher terrain, MVFR cigs will fester over southeast Ohio as a frontal boundary is tucked in close quarters to our airspace. That front is progged to pass through the region late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Additional convection is possible during the second half of the day Monday. Winds begin out of the southwest today, but could grow breezy to gusty in response to convection. Low level jet snakes through the area late tonight, and could promote a few instances of LLWS around HTS or CRW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorms and weather restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible at times in showers and storms through the first half of the week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MEK