Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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436 FXUS61 KRLX 311741 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 141 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the next work week. Above normal temperatures in store next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Friday... Quiet weather continues as surface high pressure slowly shifts east through Saturday afternoon. Dew points in the mountains will be a few degrees higher than last night, so any high mountain valley frost should be very patchy at best in cold air drainage. Saturday will be hotter and more humid than today as southerly flow starts to increase, but any precipitation should largely hold off until Saturday night while the upper level ridge remains overhead. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1214 PM Friday... A 500-mb shortwave and an associated surface low will approach from the west Sunday, bringing another chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cloudy skies will keep daytime temperatures in the 70s for most. Expect anywhere from 0.25-0.50" south of I-64 and 0.50- 0.75" for places north of I-64. Drier and warmer weather should return Monday as the shortwave exits to the east and a ridge builds aloft. Highs in the 80s will return across the lowlands with the upper 70s expected in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1214 PM Friday... With surface high pressure sliding to the east, unsettled weather will return across the state for the rest of the week with summertime heat and humidity building. Expect daily chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms with warm, southerly flow at the surface and several weak disturbances passing aloft. It looks like Wednesday will be the worst day for heat and humidity with highs in the 80s for most and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A large cold front will sweep across the eastern 1/3 of the country Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures should settle down closer to average and precipitation chances should begin to decrease. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 PM Friday... Thin cirrus will continue to transit the region through this TAF period. Could see some patchy fog affecting EKN, and perhaps CRW/PKB toward daybreak, but confidence is lower for the latter two. Winds remain light. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy valley fog could affect CRW/PKB Saturday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Tuesday. IFR possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JP