051
FXUS61 KRLX 311006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
606 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the next work
week. Above normal temperatures in store next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 605 AM Friday...

GOES-R nighttime microphysics imagery evinces a somewhat more
widepsread river valley fog than previously anticipated. The
fog will lift and dissipate 730-9 AM. Temperatures in the
northern mountain valleys were also low enough to support frost,
at least away from rivers. The remainder of the forecast is on
track with high pressure in control.

As of 220 AM Friday...

Early morning temperatures and the frost advisory appear to be
on track. Nothing more than river valley steam fog is expected
early this morning.

High pressure surface and aloft promotes dry weather this
period, with clear sky through much of today. Surface high
pressure drifting east of the area tonight allows for return
light east to southeast low level flow, while the mid-upper
level ridge axis passing overhead later this afternoon and
tonight allows high, thin cirrus to encroach from the west.

Central guidance temperatures and dew points looked on or
close, except dew points a little lower this afternoon, and
temperatures and dew points a little lower in the valleys
tonight. The low level return flow and high thin cirrus will
again keep valley fog limited again despite higher dew points
then this morning, but the higher dew points should keep
mountain valley low temperatures high enough to preclude frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

To start off, high pressure fleets toward the east allowing a
weak surface low to approach from the west by Saturday evening
spreading chances of showers and storms into the area from west
to east. This feature will be supported by an upper level short
wave trough providing lift and moisture. Models have it moving
northeast so there should be a weak frontal boundary moving
through Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Showers and
storms will be a possibility, however nothing severe looks to be
possible at this time. Soundings are not impressive with very
little shear and upper level wind support, along with lots of
dry air aloft and low PWATS. Therefore not likely to have
an excessive rainfall threat which is good because DCAPE is a
little high and would cause the concern for downbursts. Other
than that, no signal for strong to severe storms or even
flooding issues.

As the front kicks out toward the east, weak upper and surface
high pressure will build in although unsettled weather will
persist shortly afterwards with a southern stream disturbance
forecast to affect the area Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 AM Friday...

The rest of Monday and Tuesday will likely see diurnal shower
and storm activity before another system approaches the area on
Wednesday. Long rang models are in good agreement on this
system, however timing is way off and the GFS is the earliest
with getting rid of a large cold front on Thursday, which could
be strong and originating from a potent low forecast to be
northwest of the area. Other models have it affecting the area
into the weekend, delaying its exit. For these reasons, decided
to accept central blended model guidance which equated to likely
POPs and thunderstorm probability for both Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 605 AM Friday...

GOES-R nighttime microphysics imagery evinces a somewhat more
widepsread river valley fog than previously anticipated. This
showed up intermittently at EKN and has also showed up at
CRW. The fog should lift/dissipate 12-13Z.

High pressure will otherwise promote mainly VFR conditions amid
light flow this period.

Calm conditions early this morning  will give way to light
north to northeast surface flow later this morning, and then
calm to light and variable to southeast tonight. Light flow
aloft through today will become light and variable to east
tonight. This and high cloud should limit river valley steam
fog tonight but, with higher dew points, it cannot be entirely
ruled out.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high
otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Burn off of fog first thing this morning
could vary a bit. River valley steam fog overnight tonight may
impact EKN and CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               FRI 05/31/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Tuesday. IFR possible in post-rain stratus, and
perhaps fog, overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ522>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...TRM