425
FXUS61 KRLX 200615
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will provide hot and dry weather into
midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

Large bubble of strong high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard
under a stout mid-level ridge keeping us dry for the near-term.
Expecting river valley fog to materialize due to the region
decoupling. Fog could be dense in spots, particularly for the
most sheltered valleys with poor drainage winds.

Fog will lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning,
giving way to mostly clear skies, until afternoon when scattered
cumulus dot the sky with peak heating. Temperatures are
expected to be above normal today with upper 80s across portions
of the lowlands, some of the usual hot spots may even see 90
degrees.

There is a chance or an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
the mountains this afternoon. This activity may spawn from peak
heating and converging flow along the higher elevations from a
weak trough within the ridge pattern. Anything that does form
will not maintain longevity with weak surface flow installed
across the area with this strong high pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 216 PM Sunday...

Drier, and increasingly warmer weather is in store for Tuesday, as
high pressure surface and aloft continues to build into the region.
Can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or storm developing
during peak heating hours Tuesday, provided something can break
through the cap, but overall, expect much of Tuesday to remain dry.
With the building ridge across the area, some locations could even
top out around 90 by Tuesday, which according to the nws heat risk
map, sensitive individuals could be affected, even though this is
below criteria for an advisory.

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada Tuesday into Wednesday,
eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday.
Showers and storms will develop out ahead of the front Wednesday
afternoon and evening, with the possibility of some storms becoming
strong to severe, mainly across parts of SE Ohio and perhaps into NE
KY, with a damaging wind threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

Frontal boundary will move through the region Thursday, potentially
stalling out just to our south early Friday, as surface high
pressure briefly builds in across the north. Most of the CWA will
remain dry on Friday, however, isolated showers and storms will
continue to be possible across the south in particular, closer to
the front.  Active weather will return over the weekend, with the
approach of another system from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM Monday...

VFR conditions outside of patchy river valley fog that is
likely to develop this morning as most locations across the area
have already decoupled. Restrictions will likely occur at
CKB/CRW/EKN/PKB and these restrictions will vary, but IFR/LIFR
is the most likely category, particularly for the most sheltered
valleys (i.e CRW/EKN).

Overall, fog coverage and density will be less expansive and
intense than it was last night. Any fog that develops will
lift/dissipate between ~11-1230Z this morning, with the
sheltered valleys holding it to the latter end of the range.

Widespread VFR expected today once fog lifts. Skies will be
speckled with CU fields this afternoon due to diurnal heating.
There is a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
the mountains this afternoon, but all sites in this region
look to remain out of the probability at this time.

Surface flow will remain calm through the morning. Light and
variable surface flow is expected at all sites today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, coverage, and intensity of fog
formation tonight could vary from the forecast.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/20/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with river valley fog or low stratus
Tuesday morning, then again with showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday and Thursday with a cold FROPA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC